In 1982, the International Whaling Commission (IWC) adopted a moratorium on commercial whaling. The primary rationale offered was the argued absence of a sound scientific basis for setting safe catch limits. Although the 1982 resolution also promised a review of the moratorium no later than 1990, based upon the best scientific advice, the moratorium remains in place. Further, last year the Commission introduced a whale sanctuary in the Southern Ocean (for most of the region south of 40 degrees S).

WHAT SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE SINCE 1982?

• An extensive series of scientific sighting surveys (in the Southern Ocean in particular) have provided vastly improved information on the current abundance of many whale stocks.
• A "Revised Management Procedure" (RMP) has been developed to provide a sound basis for setting safe catch limits.

WHAT ARE CURRENT ABUNDANCES OF BALEEN WHALE STOCKS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN?

• Species heavily depleted by earlier commercial whaling (blue, fin, sei, humpback, right) are generally still at low levels - in the range of a thousand to a few tens of thousand at best. Relatively rapid recovery rates of some 7 - 10 % per annum have, however, been detected for the humpback and right whales.
• Minke whales are now estimated to number some 3/4 million. This estimate is negatively biased for a number of reasons, including that the surveys on which it is based have covered only about 75 % of the ocean area south of 60 degrees S, while minke distribution extends north of this latitude. The estimate is almost double that available at the time the moratorium was imposed. Comparing the estimate to the cumulative historic minke catch of 115 thousand since 1971, it is clear that this minke population cannot have been markedly depleted under past exploitation.

WHAT IS THE RMP AND WHAT ARE ITS FEATURES?

• The RMP is at root a feedback control algorithm which sets baleen whale harvest levels on the basis of previous catches and a time series of estimates of absolute abundance provided by sighting surveys.
• It was developed over a seven year period by the IWC's scientific committee, who took particular care to simulation test its robustness to a very wide range of conceivable scientific uncertainties (e.g. the effects of environmental change). It has been more thoroughly researched than any comparable procedure applied to regulate marine resource harvests anywhere in the world.
• It deliberately insists upon independent research survey data to avoid the biases which can arise from using fishery-based information to provide an index of abundance. The catch limit allowed phases out to zero if such surveys are not conducted with sufficient regularity.
• It forces catches to be spread over wide areas, as a hedge against the uncertainties associated with the demarcation of stock boundaries.

WHAT LEVEL OF CATCHES WOULD THE RMP PERMIT AND HOW DO THESE COMPARE TO NATURAL GROWTH RATES OF WHALES?

• For stocks not previously impacted by harvesting (e.g. Southern Ocean minkes), initial annual catches would be set at about 0.5 % of estimates of current abundance (see diagram).
• For Southern Ocean baleen whale stocks previously heavily depleted (e.g. blue, fin, sei, humpback, right), the RMP would specify catch levels of zero now and for a number of decades to come.
• Over the last two decades, various series of direct observations have yielded growth rate estimates of some 7 % and 10 % for Southern Hemisphere right and humpback whales, and some 3 % for North Pacific grey and bowhead whales. Direct measurements of the growth rate of minke populations have yet to be achieved. Minkes typically reproduce every year, compared to the biennial or longer cycles for the other baleen whale species mentioned.

HOW COULD ANY CATCH LIMITS ALLOWED IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN BE ENFORCED?

• Resumption of commercial whaling in the absence of an international inspection scheme is inconceivable. The simple mechanism of placing inspectors on board the few factory vessels which would operate, would render this the most easily and effectively policed of any fishing operation in international waters.
• The historic misreporting of catches by the USSR, which were recently admitted by Russia, took place essentially BEFORE the 1970's when the IWC first put an international inspection scheme in place.

WHAT WAS THE MOTIVATION GIVEN FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WHALE SANCTUARY, AND WHAT WILL BE ITS PRACTICAL EFFECT?

• To provide a safely net for the RMP (lest it prove to be flawed), and to rehabilitate the Antarctic ecosystem.
• Preventing the implementation of the RMP to allow the resumption of a restricted level of commercial whaling on Southern Ocean minke whales.

IS THERE ANY REAL SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION FOR THE SANCTUARY AND THE CONTINUED MORATPRIUM ON WHALING FOR SOUTHERN OCEAN MINKES?

• Could minke catch levels of less than 0.5 % per annum seriously threaten rehabilitation of the Southern Ocean ecosystem?
• Is there any scientific reason for preventing application of the world's most thoroughly researched marine resource management procedure (the RMP) to its healthiest baleen whale population (Southern Ocean minkes)?
• Was imposition of the Sanctuary really simply to prevent resumed whaling of Southern Ocean minkes for reasons of cultural preferences, now that no scientific case against such a resumption remains?
• Does one culture have the right to impose its preferences on what animals may or may not be used for human consumption on another?

YOU ARE INVITED TO JUDGE.

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