(from "Chairman's Report of the Thirty-Eighth Annual Meeting")
The Scientific Committee saw the carrying out of the Comprehensive Assessment as an iterative process with considerable interaction between these three elements.
The Scientific Committee agreed that there is considerable uncertainty over stock identity and the relationship between biological and management stocks. A number of types of data and studies of relevance were identified. An essential part of the review process will involve compiling and updating catalogues of available data by management unit and species. It was noted that new data requirements may arise when the data inventories have been developed, and after an initial review of methodologies, to examine particular assessment methodologies, as well as to provide additional information for assessment of particular stocks. Continuation of monitoring studies of particular stocks was also recommended by the Scientific Committee.
It has become clear that there are a number of problems in trying to fully implement the present management procedure, particularly associated with difficulties in estimating the maximum sustainable yield, maximum sustainable yield levels and initial stock sizes. Because of the relationship between management procedures and the advice required to implement them, an essential part of a Comprehensive Assessment will include exploration of alternative management procedures.
The Scientific Committee developed an outline work plan of scientific work and
joint scientific/technical work.
The scientific work consists of seven steps:
- an inventory of current knowledge on the status of stocks;
- methodological problems in determining stock identity and population trends;
- parallel with this to examine the availability of data;
- review scientific aspects of alternative management procedures;
- preparation of a second round inventory;
- examination of general aspects of whale population dynamics;
- preparation of a third round inventory.
The Joint Scientific/Technical Committee activity involves discussion of the management objectives of the Commission and their scientific implications.
At each stage in the process of carrying out the Comprehensive Assessment
there is a need to set priorities which will be dictated by the needs at each
stage of the work.
Completion of a Comprehensive Assessment will take a considerable length of
time.
The Scientific Committee developed a timetable to complete work for at least
the major stocks by 1990.
Because of the iterative nature of the work plan it is difficult to present a
detailed timetable, and the speed of progress depends critically on the
available resources.
Some work can be done by the Scientific Committee or the Secretariat, but the
remainder must be done elsewhere.
Possibilities include:
- work by Scientific Committee sub-committees, workshops, special meetings;
- research scientists attached to or employed by the Secretariat;
- independent scientists or agencies under contract;
- scientists in national laboratories.
It is clear that carrying out the Comprehensive Assessment will make substantial additional demands on the Secretariat and member governments, and will require some or all of the provision of additional staff, computing facilities, contract work, new data collection, national research activities, and workshops and other meetings.
A start was made at the 1986 meeting to implement this total plan which was endorsed by the Scientific Committee. The Secretariat had provided a preliminary inventory of current knowledge of the status of stocks which demonstrated the need for a Comprehensive Assessment. A revised format for a data inventory was prepared and it was recommended that these should be returned by national governments and other bodies for the 1987 Annual Meeting.
Methodological problems require specific work with respect to stock identity, current abundance, estimation of trends in productivity and carrying capacity, and estimation of biological parameters. Further data coding was recommended to be undertaken by the Secretariat and monitoring studies such as the Antarctic IDCR surveys should be continued. It was recommended that the scientific aspects of alternative management procedures should be considered at a workshop and a further workshop on the use of CPUE data was also proposed for 1986/87. Three reviews, on cytogenetic and biochemical techniques for examining stock identity; census techniques; and mark-recapture techniques, were also required which might best be obtained under contract. Until these reviews and the data inventories are available, it is not possible to provide detailed estimates of work and costs for future years, but it was stressed that the Comprehensive Assessment is a very substantial undertaking and only if the Commission is prepared to meet a budget of the order suggested will there be a reasonable chance of reaching a successful conclusion in the specified timeframe.
7.2 Report of the Joint Working Group
Dr L. Fleischer (Mexico), Vice-Chairman of the Technical Committee, presented
the report of the Joint Working Group of the Scientific and Technical
Committees which he had chaired.
This meeting reviewed the two reports from the Scientific Committee, and there
was general agreement that the direction of the studies outlined was suitable
for the Comprehensive Assessment.
However, some members considered the step-by-step approach suitable while
others hoped that initial studies would indicate that an acceleration of the
later phases could occur.
The need for as rapid progress as possible was stressed.
The Joint Working Group endorsed the two workshops on management procedures
and CPUE data, and the contract reviews.
It was noted that savings to the IWC would ensue if any of the reviews were
undertaken by national laboratories or funded by member governments.
It was also agreed that the technical aspects of alternative management schemes should be explored whilst recognising that there are some important principles explicit in the current management scheme.
7.3 Action arising
In discussing these two reports, Japan put its view that the 1982 decision to
set zero catch limits on commercial whaling did not have a scientific basis,
and this has led to a split within the IWC.
It placed great importance on scientific work for the future of the
Commission.
It was concerned over the number of steps proposed in the Scientific Committee
programme and hoped that the methodological and stock approaches could be
combined at an earlier stage.
It looked forward to the development of revised management procedures along
the line of proposals which it has itself submitted.
Iceland also welcomed the initiative represented by these reports, but regretted the delay in starting this work following the 1982 decision. The work plan so far is only preparatory and its own national research activity is to be seen as part of the Comprehensive Assessment. It invited cooperation in its research activity and offered to host one of the workshops proposed.
Norway emphasised that the preparations for the Comprehensive Assessment have the highest priority for the future of the Commission. It believes that the Scientific Committee programme provides a good basis for the work, which may need to be modified later to form a simpler plan so that adjustments and acceleration can be accommodated as time goes on. Norway spoke of the link between this work and management objectives; setting goals for management will always be policy oriented, and therefore a political act in the sense that it will involve elements of arbitrary choice rather than scientific reasoning. Norway believes that the 1946 Whaling Convention has certain objectives identified in the preamble, while UNCLOS has other objectives incorporating multispecies concepts. Extended national maritime resource jurisdiction has created a need for a broader, multispecies management approach which must comprise also the management of whale stocks.
The Technical Committee recommended and the Commission agreed that the Scientific Committee should divide the time at its annual meetings between work arising under the Comprehensive Assessment and with reduced time spent on its regular Items. The Technical Committee also formally endorsed and the Commission accepted the Scientific Committee's work plan for 1986/87 and the outline proposals for future activity on the Comprehensive Assessment.
Japan emphasised the significance of the Comprehensive Assessment, and proposed that the Joint Working Group of the Technical and Scientific Committees should meet again next year. Norway and Iceland seconded this proposal, which was adopted by the Commission. Terms of reference will be developed during the year, in consultation with Dr Fleischer (Mexico), who agreed to convene the meeting.
The Seychelles spoke of the extra burden now placed on the Scientific Committee through having to continue some year by year assessments of stocks which continue to be exploited, in addition to the task of carrying out the Comprehensive Assessment. It also highlighted the fact that since 1982 the classification of some 19 stocks have been changed to a less abundant or uncertain status, and none in an optimistic direction. The Seychelles saw this as justification for the pause in commercial whaling and emphasised the urgent need for the profound re-appraisal that has now begun.
The USSR also spoke of the complicated effort and financial commitment required if the Comprehensive Assessment is to proceed. Success and speed will come only if all Contracting Governments contribute through the provision of equipment, personnel and money, and it urged all members to participate fully.
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