9. COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF WHALE STOCKS

(from "Chairman's Report of the Fortieth Annual Meeting")



Following the recommendation agreed last year, the Joint Working Group of the Technical and Scientific Committees on Comprehensive Assessment met to review the development of the work carried out during the year and to discuss the future work of the Scientific Committee. It was chaired by Dr L. Fleischer (Mexico), Vice-Chairman of the Technical Committee, and attended by delegates from Australia, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Seychelles, Sweden, UK, USSR and the USA.


9.1 Report of Scientific Committee
The Scientific Committee reviewed the reports of four contract studies carried out during the past year and made a number of recommendations. The programmes covered biochemical genetics, analysis of Southern Hemisphere minke whale marking data and non-minke sightings data, and a Galapagos sperm whale study.

Reports of intersessional meetings and activities were also reviewed, concerning the photo-identification workshop, analysis of catch curves, management procedures and biological parameters. Other studies discussed in the Scientific Committee included sightings surveys, telemetry and remote sensing, follow-up to the CPUE workshop, and estimating Maximum Sustainable Yield rate.

Future work includes a Workshop on the Feeding Ecology of Southern Baleen Whales, to be held jointly with CCAMLR. A joint steering committee met and proposed revised objectives and terms of reference.

A working group was established to consider how to proceed with the further evaluation of management procedures, and it recommended that an intersessional workshop be held in the coming year, with certain preparatory work to be completed in advance.

With respect to priority groups/stocks and studies, the Scientific Committee recognises that a major problem it faces is the question of stock identity. Therefore, in most cases priorities must be considered in terms of broad population/regions rather than stocks. It agreed that priority should be assigned to the following categories:

(a) those for which substantial work is underway, i.e. Southern Hemisphere minkes, North Atlantic minke, fin and sei whales; North Pacific Bryde's and minke whales;
(b) those which have been protected from commercial whaling which are now showing varying degrees of recovery, i.e. the eastern North Pacific stock of gray whales and the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Sea stock of bowhead whales;
(c) those other fully protected stocks for which considerable data bases exist, the study of which will help resolve general methodological problems and improve our knowledge of whale population dynamics, e.g. some stocks of right and humpback whales.

The Scientific Committee must also carry out a Comprehensive Assessment of stocks subject to aboriginal subsistence whaling. It was agreed by the Committee that, before 1990, the eastern North Pacific gray whales should be the subject of an assessment in greater breadth and depth than is usually possible at an annual meeting for the following reasons: (1) there is no problem with stock identity; (2) it falls in category (b) above; (3) it is subject to aboriginal subsistence whaling.

The Scientific Committee outlined its work plan for 1988/89, including additional work to be carried out by the Secretariat which will require extra data analysis staff. The work plan for the following year will be developed at the 1989 meeting, and this meeting should be devoted to planning the preparation of a detailed progress report on the Comprehensive Assessment. Other matters should be reduced to a minimum, although an item addressing the implications for whale management of interspecific interactions will be included.


9.2 Report of Joint Working Group
In discussing the report of the Scientific Committee, members of the Joint Working Group made a number of observations on the various items summarised above.

(1)
Japan commented that although the problem of possible mark shedding still exists with respect to using mark-recapture analyses to estimate population size, it believes the Discovery mark data base will have considerable value for ecological studies such as migration, growth and age.

(2)
The Joint Working Group expressed its gratitude to Japan for the continuing major contribution it has made to the IDCR Southern Hemisphere minke whale assessment cruises. Japan recalled that it has provided vessels, personnel and finance, and abundance data have resulted for minke whales and other species. Seychelles warned of the danger of an imbalance between the effort to collect new data, and analysis and interpretation of existing data, with insufficient time allocated for processing and evaluation of results.

(3)
Discussion of the photo-identification workshop led Japan to comment that the problems facing the Scientific Committee can most efficiently be addressed only if lethal and non-lethal sampling methods are combined. Australia responded that such a general statement cannot be supported. Lethal and non-lethal research methods should be examined on their merits in the light of the objectives of the research and on a case by case basis. Seychelles associated itself with this view.

(4)
Norway, while congratulating the Scientific Committee on the progress made on modelling related to management procedures, recalled that setting management objectives required a policy decision which must not be prejudged by the current studies by the Scientific Committee. Seychelles noted that this work impinges directly on the Technical Committee and is conducted at a technical level which places the IWC in a lead among world fishery organisations.

Seychelles also noted it would be timely if the Scientific Committee could prepare for the benefit of Commissioners and others an easily comprehensible document explaining the characteristics of the procedures being explored.

This suggestion was supported by Australia, noting it is important that first stage work is presented in the way suggested, so that the Technical Committee and the Commission, in any reconsideration of the objectives of management, can work from an understanding of the levels of performance that various styles of management procedures might achieve. Time should be put aside next year for consideration of this subject. Japan concurred, encouraged to find the Tanaka procedure, which was once criticised, is now evaluated as promising. Seychelles observed that if, in the interests of time, it refrained from comment on such evaluations, it would hope that such lack of comment would not be taken to imply concurrence.

(5)
Iceland commented on the importance of the North Atlantic sightings survey to Comprehensive Assessment noting that last year several North Atlantic nations participated. It believed it was important that the Joint Working Group endorse the 1989 Survey and recommend North Atlantic nations, in particular IWC members, to consider active participation by financial contributions or technical assistance in the forthcoming survey. Norway supported the Iceland proposal and confirmed its commitment to cooperate in the 1989 survey.

The Scientific Committee had recommended that the Commission instruct the Secretary to contact the Government of Canada informing it of the survey planned for 1989 and requesting its cooperation and participation in this survey.

Seychelles endorsed the importance of sightings surveys, and the right whale surveys off South Africa and Argentina, eastern North Pacific gray whales, and surveys for right and humpback whales off Australia were all mentioned.

(6)
Australia expressed its view that reanalysis of existing data sets for estimating the Maximum Sustainable Yield rate is timely as many of the analyses defining the ranges of MSY rates go back to the 1960s and suggested that, although methodology has been reviewed, the existing data have not been reanalysed. It also commented that some analyses are based on biological information from catches and that these data should be available to the Committee. As an example it referred to the excellent data set from Japan and asked if these data would be available.

Japan noted that as clarified at the last Committee Meeting there is some limitation on availability but if requested by the Scientific Committee this limitation could be modified for use in the Comprehensive Assessment.

(7)
Iceland concurred with the Scientific Committee's recommendation for holding the Feeding Ecology Workshop, and further recommended that the Committee should have on its agenda at the next and subsequent meetings a special item on ecological questions related to whales. Norway endorsed this but noted that at this stage such considerations should not distract from the completion of the Comprehensive Assessment. USA and Seychelles associated themselves with the Norwegian statement. Japan stated it would also participate in the Feeding Ecology Workshop believing that this would ultimately contribute to the Comprehensive Assessment.

UK, Australia and Japan noted that while ecological studies are important, care should be taken to consider the workload of the Scientific Committee and to remain aware of the need to complete the Comprehensive Assessment. Seychelles noted their reservations about the amount of work which can be achieved on next year's agenda, and suggested that only a general exploration of the subject should be attempted. The Working Group endorsed this approach by the Scientific Committee.

(8)
In discussion of the future work of the Scientific Committee, Japan stressed that IWC has a commitment to Comprehensive Assessment of stocks by 1990 and questioned whether the goals could be met. Norway regarded completion of the Comprehensive Assessment as the most urgent task before the Scientific Committee and IWC, noting that the Scientific Committee report shows a net gain in organisation and practical progress. Contract and intersessional work is also a positive contribution, but it is imperative that the Scientific Committee be in a position to provide by 1990 something the Commission could regard as a Comprehensive Assessment.

Seychelles expressed its concerns regarding the setting of priorities and specifically to the proper development of recommendations made in one year by the Committee. These are in some cases delayed, or not implemented, in part because of differing national priorities or lack of research workers' time.

Australia agreed, noting that the Scientific Committee meets for two weeks per year and it cannot alone complete the Comprehensive Assessment which depends in very large part on the efforts of individuals. The Committee is only in a position to review and synthesise material presented at its meeting.

Iceland stated that the Commission must recognise the level of funding required to complete this work.

USSR commented on the scope of the work and levels of funding required, noting that the IWC cannot rely on countries to carry this out on a national basis. It believes it would be reasonable to organise a centralised fund in the IWC through which work could be properly directed, and all nations should contribute to this type of science.

Concerning the future work plan, Japan reiterated its desire for a concentrated effort on stock assessment for Comprehensive Assessment and asked the Chairman of the Scientific Committee if it was possible for the Committee to complete the Comprehensive Assessment by 1990. The latter noted that this matter had not been fully considered by the Scientific Committee, but in his personal view it would not be possible to complete by 1990 a full Comprehensive Assessment as envisaged by the Scientific Committee at its special meeting in 1986.

However, he drew attention to the intention of the Committee to devote most of its 1989 Annual Meeting to planning for preparation of a detailed report on progress towards a Comprehensive Assessment to be presented to the Commission in 1990. This report should contain, inter alia, as broad and in-depth an assessment of the identified major priority stocks as was possible with the information available at that time. He emphasised however, that this would only be possible if the Committee was able to devote the required time to this process during its 1989 meeting, if the necessary funding was provided and if members of the Committee were able to devote sufficient time to this work during 1989/90.

USA stated that the Commission should place the Scientific Committee in the best possible position to complete its agenda for 1989, and that the Joint Working Group should concur with the Scientific Committee's proposals and endorse the 1988/89 work plan. Norway agreed with this view.

(9)
The Joint Working Group received and discussed a chronological review paper of the Comprehensive Assessment prepared by the Secretary. Norway commented that the document points out the ambiguity of the term 'Comprehensive Assessment'. The work done by 1990 will be used as a basis for the future, even if not in all respects perfect. Japan joined in the call to the Scientific Committee to complete the Comprehensive Assessment on priority stocks by 1990 based on the best available knowledge. Iceland concurred with these two views, and Seychelles emphasised the development of consensus in the Scientific Committee.


9.3 Action arising
The Commission noted and endorsed all the recommendations from the Scientific Committee through the Joint Working Group as given below:

(1)
Funds for the contract study for DNA experiments on stock identity and school structure should be continued for the second year of a two-year project.

(2)
The IWC should establish a database containing information on the availability of existing, preserved cetacean tissue samples. This information, stored in a standard format, would be available to investigators requiring tissue samples. The investigators would then make their own arrangements with the caretakers of the samples.

(3)
The IWC Secretariat should approach the Secretariat of CITES with a view to promoting the exchanges of cetacean tissues between scientific institutions. Member governments should also facilitate scientific institutions' export of tissue samples for studies related to the Comprehensive Assessment.

(4)
The proposed workshop on the genetic and biochemical analysis of tissue samples collected by biopsy sampling and other means should be held.

(5)
The IWC Secretariat should complete the coding project on Antarctic whale marking and recovery data.

(6)
An international workshop should be held to evaluate management procedures and elaborate second stage screening. A discretionary fund of ,000 should also be provided for 1988/89 for members of the Scientific Committee to carry out further development of management procedures.

Seychelles suggested that some time be set aside at next year's meeting of the Joint Working Group to have a presentation by the Chairman of the Scientific Committee or other appropriate scientists about the current work on proposed management procedures. It was agreed that it would be useful to do this, especially if visual aids were used.

(7)
Monitoring studies including the Antarctic IDCR cruises, the North Atlantic surveys, and surveys of the eastern North Pacific gray whales, the South African right whales and Bering-Beaufort-Chukchi Seas bowhead whales should continue.

(8)
The Secretary should contact Service Argos, NOAA and NASA urging them to implement the concept of a dual beam interferometer on future satellites to provide location from single messages.

(9)
Member governments are urged to provide adequate funding to allow the development and use of telemetry to progress rapidly and further recommends such funding be of several years continuous duration to allow projects to be continued to completion.

(10)
Countries holding potentially useful data sets should be encouraged to respond to the request for submission to the data inventory.

(11)
The Workshop on the Feeding Ecology of Southern Baleen Whales should be held jointly with CCAMLR.

In the Commission, Iceland spoke strongly of the importance it places on the Comprehensive Assessment using modern methods of management incorporating an ecological multi-species approach. It cited the examples of the capelin and cod stocks in its waters which are strongly dependent on each other, and the cod worm and seal problem, to illustrate the kind of food web models required for future decision taking.

(12)
The Scientific Committee should continue its activities in accordance with the work plan and priorities identified, and with an appropriate budgetary allocation.

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