(from "Chairman's Report of the Forty-Eighth Annual Meeting")

SURVEY DATABASE AND SOFTWARE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE IWC DATABASE AND ESTIMATION SOFTWARE SYSTEM (DESS)
Development of the IWC-DESS is being carried out under contract to the IWC. It standardises IWC line transect survey data storage and provides powerful data manipulation and estimation facilities for abundance estimation by linking the database to other programs. Development and documentation of the IWC-DESS has been completed, but there remain some problems relating to the validation of data held in the system. IWC-DESS was transferred to the Secretariat at this meeting and access to the system by accredited members of the Committee will be possible as soon as the problems are resolved.

Matters requiring work for completion of the current system were summarised and it was agreed that resolution of these should be done through discussion between the developers and the Secretariat. This had minor financial implications. The Scientific Committee agreed it was important that the Icelandic NASS-89 data be fully verified, and recommended that the Secretariat and the developers liaise with the relevant Icelandic scientist(s) to accomplish these tasks. This has financial implications.

The Scientific Committee noted that the developers of the database system were currently entering other data. However, it noted that incorporating data on gray and bowhead whale stocks subject to aboriginal subsistence whaling, for which very different methodologies were used to estimate abundance, would be a major task. Incorporating historical data, such as 'Discovery' data, would also be a major task. The Scientific Committee therefore recommended that, at this time, data entered into the database system should be limited to those collected before and after IWC/IDCR cruises in the Southern Hemisphere (these data have been coded but not verified) and those from the Japanese and IDCR dedicated surveys conducted in the Southern Hemisphere between 1978/79 and 1982/83 (these data have not been coded). Accomplishing this task will have significant financial implications. The Scientific Committee agreed that entering these new data into the database was a higher priority than incorporating new abundance estimation software.

REVIEW OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING ABUNDANCE
The developers of the IWC-DESS had been contracted to evaluate and present options for the development of analytical methods for estimating abundance at this meeting and provided a review of this which addressed three areas: mean school size; estimation of abundance by Small Area; and methodology for two platform data.

CONSIDERATION OF FUTURE COMMITTEE WORK ON ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION
The Scientific Committee considered the report of an ad-hoc Working Group which addressed the question of identifying estimation methods that would be candidates for adding to the IWC-DESS. The importance of testing estimators using simulated data and the merit of testing abundance estimators using real data were both stressed. This topic needs further discussion and an intersessional correspondence group was established to report at next year's meeting.

PRESENTATION OF TRIAL RESULTS INCLUDING COMBINATION TRIALS
The Working Group established to consider combination trials had continued its work intersessionally but it had not yet been possible to finalise analyses. However, a final set of simulations required to complete statistical analysis had now been specified and this work would be completed soon.

GUIDELINES FOR DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS - OPERATIONAL DATA
The Scientific Committee was reminded of the potential value of time budget data from whaling operations in estimating indices of relative abundance and agreed that it was timely to propose changes to Tables 1 and 2 of Appendix A in the Schedule that could be considered by the Commission. It agreed that the appropriate mechanism for this was to amend the Guidelines for Data Collection and Analysis under the Revised Management Scheme (RMS) Other than those Required as Direct Input for the Catch Limit Algorithm (CLA) and recommended that the Daily Record Sheet given in Annex M of its Report be included in the Guidelines, and that the Commission adopts the revised Daily Record Sheet when it considers revision of the Schedule in this respect.

11.1.2 Action arising
The Commission adopted the recommendations from the Scientific Committee.

11.2 Southern Hemisphere baleen whales - humpback whales
11.2.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
PROGRESS ON SHORT-TERM ASSESSMENT WORK
CATCH AND MARKING DATA CODING
Coding and validation of a number of catch datasets has been completed and others were in progress. No progress had been made with marking data. The Scientific Committee agreed that revised Soviet and Olympic Challenger catches should be incorporated into the IWC databases.

BIOPSY SAMPLING
The Scientific Committee welcomed the additional sampling effort but again recommended, as last year, that intensified sampling is required in Areas II and III. It noted problems in transferring samples obtained on minke whale assessment cruises and recommended that the Secretary make a further approach for CITES clearance, stressing the international importance of the work, and requested member nations of the IWC to assist in the process. It also stressed the need for more sampling from breeding grounds/migratory corridors, to assist in elucidating stock-mixing on the feeding grounds.

PHOTO-IDENTIFICATION
The Scientific Committee recommended establishment of a Centralised Directory, to be administered by the Secretariat, and a Centralised Antarctic Catalogue. Its creation and curation should be put out to contract by the IWC. However, at this stage there is insufficient information to formulate the terms of a contract, and the Scientific Committee recommended that a person should be appointed and funded to obtain the information needed for presentation to the Scientific Committee so that a request for proposals from institutions/groups to maintain the catalogue can be issued.

PROGRESS IN LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT WORK
The Scientific Committee reviewed progress on historical catch and other data, and received some information on preliminary abundance estimates off Australia, Brazil, Antarctic Areas IV and V, and Tonga. Too few whales for abundance estimation had been seen on a 50-day cruise in the southern Indian Ocean but the Scientific Committee recommended that identification photographs obtained be incorporated into the Antarctic Catalogue in due course.

The Scientific Committee noted that a third set of IWC/IDCR circumpolar surveys had begun since the last estimates of humpback whale abundance. It strongly recommended that the previous (unpublished) estimates should be rechecked and updated using whatever information is available from the third set of cruises, both to provide abundance estimates and to permit further examination of population trends.

In reviewing the work required to complete the assessment, the Scientific Committee noted that the main obstacle to the use of previous approaches for assessment (HITTER, and possibly FITTER) was the absence of an agreed catch series. In the interim, it might however be useful to set priorities amongst the different 'stocks'. Most members considered that Areas IV and V were natural choices as priority stocks for assessment. The Scientific Committee agreed that assessments should be based on breeding rather than feeding stocks, and noted that for progress to be made, certain work would have to be undertaken. The key factor in the catch series to be used was the revised Soviet catch data. Three scientists stated they would endeavour to obtain as much detailed information on the humpback whale catch locations as possible before the next Annual Meeting. In welcoming this initiative the Scientific Committee expressed its gratitude for the effort already made by the Russian scientists to retrieve and preserve the true whaling data.

CATCH HISTORY REVISIONS
The publication Materials on Whaling by Soviet Antarctic Whaling Fleets (1947-1972) which documents the revised Soviet catches from original sources was received. A statement by the Contracting Party of the Russian Federation concerning the use of official statistics is included in the Report of the Sub-committee on Southern Hemisphere Baleen Whales. The Scientific Committee expressed its sincere appreciation to the scientists involved for their efforts in collating these very important data, and hoped they would be able to continue their work in the coming year.

The Scientific Committee also received a review of Southern Hemisphere catches by the Olympic Challenger, 1950/51-1955/56, based on unpublished notes by crew members, pursers' logs and two German scientists' reports. There were considerable discrepancies between blue, fin and humpback whale catches previously reported and now available. The Scientific Committee expressed its appreciation for this work which is now effectively complete.

OTHER STOCKS OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BALEEN WHALES
Given the limitations of time, the Scientific Committee accepted a compilation of information of the main features of relevant documents concerning species other than minke whales.

11.2.2 Action arising
The Russian Federation received confirmation that there would be no expense to the Commission in continuing the catch history revision of Soviet whaling data, other than possible invited participants. It went on to report that the data submitted by the independent experts had not found confirmation as a result of work undertaken by competent Russian authorities on the matter. Therefore the data to be used in assessment or other work should be that officially submitted by the Russian government. It was also concerned that the views of the official Russian representative had not been incorporated into the main body of the Scientific Committee report and viewed this and the discussion in the Scientific Committee as showing a lack of impartiality.

The Chairman of the Commission pointed out that the Report of the Scientific Committee comprises the whole documentation even though it is in separate sections, and the Chairman of the Scientific Committee commented that the Russian statement appeared where it was requested. The Commission then adopted the recommendations for further work.

11.3 North Pacific minke whales
11.3.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
A Working Group on North Pacific minke trials met over six days immediately prior to the meeting of the Scientific Committee. Its aims were to review new information relevant to Implementation Simulation Trials for North Pacific minke whales and to revise the existing specifications for these trials developed by an earlier meeting of a similar Group. The greatest part of the Group's time was taken up by a detailed discussion of stock/sub-stock structure. It agreed that the available data and information were generally inconsistent with there being sub-stocks to the east of Japan characterised by different levels of latitudinal migration. In the light of these discussions, the original Implementation Simulation Trials for North Pacific minke whales were revised. The most important changes are that the time step used in modelling whale migration has been shortened from two months to one, sub-stock structure has been dropped, and the catch mixing matrices (reflecting spatio-temporal changes in stock distribution) are now age- and sex-structured.

In noting the discussion of sub-stocks, the Scientific Committee agreed that it was important to consider the general question of management units and specifically questions associated with the conservation of the range of a species that may have a habitual component to its migration. It recommended that the Secretariat carry out computations of the trials listed intersessionally. The Scientific Committee appointed an intersessional Steering Group to review results of these initial trials by correspondence. It also noted that the RMP specifications as presently drafted do not envisage temporal constraints within a season on a catch limit for a Small Area, although the specifications for the trials include such restrictions. The Scientific Committee agreed that should the results of the trials proposed indicate satisfactory performance, it would give attention to consideration of an appropriate amendment to the RMP specifications at a future meeting.

The Scientific Committee did not have sufficient time available to fully review the future survey designs but it did provide general advice and comments about the design presented.

11.3.2 Action arising
The Commission adopted the recommendation from the Scientific Committee.

11.4 North Atlantic minke whales
11.4.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
After the failure of the Scientific Committee to agree on an acceptable estimate of abundance for the northeast Atlantic minke whales last year, an intersessional abundance estimation working group (AEWG) was established with a developed workplan 'to 'maximise' the probability that the Scientific Committee would be able to agree on an estimate at its next Annual Meeting'.

The multi-national AEWG comprised biologists and statisticians with extensive experience in the conduct and analysis of line transect surveys. The work plan included two intersessional meetings and an extensive set of identified tasks and working papers which needed to be completed. The identified work included analysis and verification of the survey and experimental data that had been collected in 1988-1990; the survey conducted during the summer of 1995; and the specifics of the hazard probability method as it had been developed for the analyses of these data.

As agreed in the workplan, the AEWG had extensive intersessional communication using electronic mail for the automatic distribution of correspondence to all members (e.g. over 250 messages were exchanged); completed to their satisfaction all specific tasks identified in its terms of reference; produced 41 working papers; met twice; and produced an agreed report as a record of its work over the year. This report documents the AEWG's consensus on acceptable estimates of abundance of northeast Atlantic minke whales.

The AEWG developed agreed approaches with respect to the analysis of the 1988-90 and 1995 data and based on its careful examination of the hazard probability method and approach. The AEWG agreed that the application of the procedure as described in its report and the supporting working papers submitted to it is acceptable for estimating the abundance of northeastern Atlantic minke whales from the 1988-90 and 1995 data. The application of the method resulted in estimates of 67,531 and 118,299 whales for 1989 and 1995 respectively.

The AEWG agreed that the data collection and analysis methods on which these estimates are based are a substantial advance on previously used methods for North Atlantic minke whales. Nonetheless, as is always the case, the method could be further improved for use in the northeastern Atlantic and elsewhere and during the course of its work and discussions, a number of areas were identified as warranting further investigation.

The leader of the AEWG, Dr T. Polacheck (Australia) thanked all the members of the AEWG for their long hours of hard work and effort. From his perspective, he noted that the report of the AEWG represented a truly collaborative and cooperative effort. All members of the AEWG were active participants throughout the process, making substantial contributions to the actual analyses and contributing to at least one of the 41 working papers presented to the meeting. These contributions were combined and synthesised into the final report and estimates of abundance.

Discussion of this item in the Scientific Committee was dominated by consideration of a working paper submitted by Dr J.G. Cooke, a member of the AEWG. Its contents can be separated into two general concerns: (1) the way in which the AEWG had conducted its business; and (2) scientific questions about the conclusion the AEWG had reached. The Chairman of the Scientific Committee commented that this was perhaps the most difficult discussion he had had to preside over in his three years in the chair. At the conclusion, the Scientific Committee agreed that the estimates of abundance presented are adequate for use in the RMP. The Scientific Committee also agreed that some analyses should be carried out and completed by next year's meeting as determined by a Steering Group it established. There was not time to review plans for future surveys although it did provide general advice and comments, and encouraged individual members to submit comments and suggestions relative to the design and conduct of this particular survey to the Institute of Marine Research in Bergen, and in particular scientists who participated in the 1995 survey and in the review of the analysis.

11.4.2 Action arising
In the Commission, New Zealand appreciated the considerable effort that had gone into preparation of the abundance estimates and raised three technical questions on: the number of simulation tests which were conducted; whether the number was limited by the requirement to press ahead with developing an abundance estimate; and the lack of fit of whale directional swimming behaviour. The Chairman of the Scientific Committee responded that these issues were discussed and reported on at length and at the end the entire Scientific Committee was satisfied and agreed on the abundance estimates.

The Netherlands also noted the amount of work done and received confirmation that robustness trials of the RMP included cases where the abundance estimates were 50% higher than the real value. Denmark commended Norway for following all the guidelines and requirements for such surveys to reach an acceptable result, which will be further validated; Japan associated itself with this statement. Mexico and the USA also joined in congratulating the Scientific Committee.

The Commission then noted the estimate of abundance and accepted the other recommendations of the Scientific Committee.

The USA introduced a Resolution cosponsored by Australia, Chile, France, Monaco, Netherlands and the UK, on the northeast Atlantic minke whales which called on the Government of Norway to reconsider its objection to the ban on commercial whaling and to halt immediately all whaling activities under its jurisdiction. It voiced disappointment at Norway's decision to continue harvesting before an abundance estimate for the stock had been agreed, but appreciated that government's policy against the export of whale meat and products. It called for Norway to consider its position on these matters and to report on stock piles of whale products.

Norway responded that its small-type coastal whaling for minke whales is a sustainable use of the resource based on the best scientific advice available. A special meeting of the Scientific Committee had not been warranted and it was only because of the later meeting date this year that whaling started before the abundance estimate had been accepted. Norway has rights and obligations under the Convention, and it questioned attempts by the majority to extend those obligations beyond the Convention. It is committed to working within the IWC but is irritated by this sort of Resolution and it would not comply nor take further part in discussion of the matter. Japan and St Vincent and The Grenadines supported these views, and Denmark also could not support the Resolution.

New Zealand supported the Resolution and had intended to be a cosponsor. It commented on the different abundance estimates provided by the Scientific Committee which it found puzzling, noted that further analyses will be carried out and wished to be assured that the item will remain on the agenda of the Scientific Committee for future consideration. The Netherlands underlined that the estimates were agreed for use in the RMP and were not the exact number of animals, and these issues will have to be resolved next year. Ireland shared these views on the need for further work and stated that it would be opposed to a resumption of whaling while the moratorium was in place even if there was an agreed valid abundance estimate. Germany supported the Resolution and took the view that because of the moratorium there should be no commercial whaling but recognised that Norway is not legally bound because of its objection. Switzerland associated itself with this statement and interpreted the Resolution as an appeal to Norway. The UK also spoke in support, while France commented on the democratic process being followed. Sweden regretted that a member side-stepped the general opinion of the Commission and made its own decisions related to whaling.

On being put to the vote there were 18 in favour, 7 against and 4 abstentions so that the Resolution shown in Appendix 5 was adopted.

11.5 Southern Hemisphere minke whales
11.5.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
The Scientific Committee noted the discussion within the Commission last year regarding the implementation of the RMP. A number of countries believed that adoption of the Sanctuary precluded the adoption of the RMP in the area, at least for the time being. They considered that the Scientific Committee should not consider Southern Hemisphere minke whales in this context unless advised to do so by the Commission. Japan had opposed this majority view because of its objection to the Sanctuary and the advanced state of the Scientific Committee's work on minke whales.

The results from the 1995/96 minke whale assessment cruise in Area VI and from a platform of opportunity study in Area IV were reviewed. This led on to a discussion of the future of the Southern Hemisphere cruises under the auspices of the IWC which had become synonymous with the IDCR programme. This resulted in a number of recommendations: that some survey time be allocated to identified studies on blue whales, related to photo-identification, biopsy sampling and acoustics; and, that the Antarctic and blue whale cruises should be considered as part of a broad programme of research in the Southern Ocean, designated the IWC Southern Ocean Whale and Ecosystem Research programme (the IWC-SOWER programme). The Scientific Committee noted that the emphasis on environmental research and cetaceans will increase as work on such matters is developed by a Standing Working Group it established.

The Scientific Committee also agreed that final details of the cruises for 1996 and 1996/97 should be referred to ajoint planning meeting for the blue whale and Antarctic cruises. It recommended that some effort to collect associated biological and oceanographic data be continued and expanded where appropriate, and strongly recommended that the Antarctic cruises proposed under the IWC-SOWER programme take place (in conjunction with the blue whale cruise), and that the 1996/97 cruise takes place in Area IIE. The Scientific Committee welcomed the very generous offer of Japan to provide two vessels and logistical support for the cruises.

In the longer term the Scientific Committee reaffirmed the importance of coordinated planning of research with other organisations and recognised that its expertise in estimating cetacean abundance may well be of most value as its contribution to broad cooperative programmes of this nature. It recommended that the facilitation of this be considered by the Standing Working Group it had established.

Finally, the Scientific Committee noted a comprehensive list of items for its 1997 review of Antarctic assessment cruise abundance estimates.

11.5.2 Action arising
The Commission accepted the various recommendations and Japan reiterated its view that implementation trials using small areas greater than 10 degrees should be carried out for the southern minke whales, which are the most abundant and robust whale stock in the world.

11.6 North Pacific Bryde's whales
11.6.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
This year the Scientific Committee completed the Comprehensive Assessment process for North Pacific Bryde's whales which began last year, considering catch data, species and stock identification, distribution and migration, biological parameters, abundance and trends.

During the 1995 Scientific Committee meeting the abundance estimate of North Pacific Bryde's whale was endorsed for use in Implementation Simulation Trials. An improved estimate of abundance in the western North Pacific (stock division b under the stock scheme adopted last year) was presented of 25,640 (CV=0.20). The Scientific Committee considered that this estimate required further evaluation and went on to address ecosystem and habitat considerations and assessment and management advice. It was agreed that sufficient information was in hand to attempt an assessment of the Bryde's whales in stock division b, carrying out the calculations for a series of MSYRs to determine depletion in terms of the mature female component of the population. Concern was expressed about the reliability of the catch statistics, and it was agreed that the assessment would include sensitivity analysis of the robustness of the abundance estimate to change in catch-data inputs.

The assessment was carried out in a standard manner following the example provided by the comprehensive assessments of minke whales carried out by the Scientific Committee in recent years. Although there is as yet no accepted level for MSYR, it was agreed that 1% is a reasonable lower bound. Given this, under the most conservative of the options considered, the mature female component of the population is at approximately 51% of its pre-exploitation level. No other management advice was provided.

It was noted that there remains concern about the validity of the geographical boundaries for this stock, and the Scientific Committee recommended that sensitivity trials using various positions of the stock boundaries, especially to the south, be carried out during RMP Implementation Simulation Trials. It also recommended that any new available information on catches or their possible bounds be reviewed and the adequacy of the unreported-catch factor be re-examined before the trials are carried out.

The Scientific Committee recommended development of RMP Implementation Simulation Trials for the western North Pacific stock (b) when so instructed by the Commission.

Japan requested the classification of this stock and the Secretary commented that paragraph 10 of the Schedule is the current legal basis for the management of whale stocks and includes the requirements of the NMP. However, the Commission in 1992 recognised by a Resolution on the Revised Management Scheme (Rep. int. Whal. Commn 43:40) that 'Schedule paragraphs 10(a) to 10(c) had proved to be deficient in several important respects'. This had led to the development and adoption by the Commission of the RMP, and in the present context it would seem sensible for the Scientific Committee to concentrate its efforts in the limited time available on this rather than the now discredited (but legal) NMP.

The Scientific Committee agreed to put forward this matter to the attention of the Commission.

11.6.2 Action arising
The Russian Federation could not support the recommendation which referred to the adequacy of unreported catch factor, but it and the Commission accepted the other two recommendations and agreed that the Scientific Committee should not spend time providing advice on stock classifications under the NMP.

11.7 Other stocks
The Scientific Committee had no new information on other stocks.

11.8 Future work plans
11.8.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
The Scientific Committee had five proposals before it for future work under the Comprehensive Assessment: to undertake a comprehensive assessment of North Atlantic humpback whales; a re-examination of North Atlantic fin whales particularly in the context of aboriginal subsistence whaling; a worldwide comparative assessment of right whales with a proposal for a workshop in early 1998; an assessment of pygmy blue whales, perhaps including 'true' blue whales; and an assessment of sperm whales.

There was no clear consensus within the Scientific Committee on which of these might be given highest priority but it recognised that none of the species or stocks proposed were appropriate for assessment at the 1997 meeting, and also that the work of the Scientific Committee involves a number of topics outside the Comprehensive Assessment.

11.8.2 Action arising
The Commission took note of these future work plans, and Australia particularly welcomed the proposed Workshop on Right Whales and offered to cooperate in hosting it.

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