(from "Chairman's Report of the Forty-Eighth Annual Meeting")

15.2 Conservation of whale stocks
15.2.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
PROGRESS WITH ACOUSTIC STUDIES
Last year the Scientific Committee had encouraged further research and development leading towards incorporation of acoustic techniques into Southern Ocean blue whale surveys. It welcomed the report this year of a feasibility study combining visual and acoustic survey techniques undertaken off California. The Scientific Committee considered a number of questions relating to the advantages and disadvantages of acoustic and visual surveys and recommended that development work should continue, together with work to develop a theoretical and practical framework for combined visual/acoustic assessment surveys.

JAPAN/IWC BLUE WHALE CRUISE
A blue whale cruise was conducted south of Australia as a joint venture between Japan and the IWC, with cooperation from Australia and the USA. The main aim was to obtain scientific information relevant to developing shipboard identification methods for separating 'true' and pygmy blue whales. Research techniques included skin biopsy, photo-identification, photogrammetry and acoustics. The cruise was successful in meeting the primary objective of locating concentrations of blue whales, but the number of biopsy samples obtained was low and photogrammetry proved difficult. Most blue whales were tentatively identified as pygmy blue whales.

Acoustic recordings of sounds most likely to have come from pygmy blue whales were reported and there is a need for more acoustic recordings of blue whales from high latitudes.

The Scientific Committee received the results of genetic analyses involving biopsy material from the cruise and other samples, conducted in response to last year's recommendation that genetic 'types' be established for 'true' and pygmy blue whales. It noted the need to collect further blue whale samples, and to include those, particularly from 'true' blue whales, sampled on recent minke whale assessment cruises. It was advised that the latter samples were being forwarded from Japan to the La Jolla laboratory via the Secretariat, but that there had been difficulties in obtaining the necessary UK CITES permit. The Scientific Committee recommended that passage of the samples through the UK be given high priority to permit analysis as soon as possible and requested that IWC member nations try to facilitate this. (In response to a proposal by the Russian Federation the Commission agreed to urge the UK CITES authorities to give high priority to passage of the samples through the UK).

The Scientific Committee noted that the Japanese and USA groups working on blue whale samples would compare the results of their analyses and agreed that further samples from a wide range of regions were needed; approximately 12-20 samples would be required from each local population.

The Scientific Committee noted that some progress had been made in response to last year's recommendations concerning the establishment of genetic 'types' for 'true' and pygmy blue whales, but that the results so far indicate that blue whale taxonomy may well be more complex than previously thought. It made a number of research recommendations.

FUTURE WORK
A proposal for a second blue whale research cruise was considered. The Scientific Committee welcomed the very generous offer of Japan to provide two vessels and logistical support for the cruise. A number of research recommendations for the cruise and its planning were made, which will be carried out off Madagascar, as part of the IWC-SOWER programme. The full cooperation of the relevant coastal State is essential, and the Scientific Committee recommended that relevant governments and the Secretary provide assistance in obtaining any necessary permission to enter the EEZs of coastal states and facilitate the conduct of the cruise.

15.2.2 Mechanisms to finance the research programme
The Secretary recalled that the Commission agreed last year to fund its contribution to the 1996/97 research programme by an allocation from its reserve funds, to be replenished by member state voluntary contributions. Only Australia made a contribution and so the reserves were depleted by the balance outstanding. The Chairman of the Finance and Administration Committee indicated that the reserves are ample and in the absence of any implications for the current budget, the matter was left.

15.2.3 Action arising
Japan welcomed the initiatives of the Scientific Committee with respect to research on large baleen whales in the Southern Hemisphere, and the Commission agreed to the recommendations as amended.

15.3 Research on the environment and whale stocks
15.3.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND CETACEANS
The meeting was held in Hawaii in March 1996 and was preceded by a two-day symposium. A feature of the meeting was that it brought together Scientific Committee members and scientists from appropriate disciplines not normally represented in the Scientific Committee.

In 1993, the Commission had stated that the Scientific Committee should give priority to research on the effects of environmental changes on cetaceans in order to provide the best scientific advice for the Commission to determine appropriate response strategies to these new challenges. The Scientific Committee agreed that its initial work on this issue would include the holding of two workshops: one on chemical pollution and cetaceans that was held last year and the one on climate change that is discussed here.

The main tasks of the Workshop were taken to be to determine: (a) which predicted climatic changes could impact cetacean populations, and with what likelihood will they do so; (b) what would be the likely consequences of such change given current knowledge; and (c) what research would improve understanding of the consequences of climate change on cetaceans?

Before addressing these questions, the Workshop considered the results of the recently completed report of the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) second assessment of climate change, including temperature, sea level rise, pollutants, stability, sea ice and zonal differences between regions. The interplay between global climatic change, chemical pollution and pathogens was considered. Whilst most impacts can be expected to shift existing pollution to new areas, some climate-related perturbations will result in a general intensification of pollution problems. Associated impacts on cetaceans would be expected to be most significant in populations living near highly populated coastal areas and/or where wetlands are lost.

Separate appraisal of the impacts of environmental changes may not be sufficient to evaluate cetacean responses. Noting the potential significance of mass mortalities and emergent diseases to population dynamics and their potential role as integrations of global changes, the Scientific Committee should consider holding a workshop on this theme.

The IPCC report suggested that overfishing and diverse human stresses on the environment will probably continue to outweigh climate change impacts for several decades.

The Workshop went on to discuss key species and identified a number of cetacean species/stocks that could be of particular concern in the context of conservation and management if predicted climate change occurred (based on three factors: low abundance; life history characters; and/or restricted range). These included: all northern right whale populations; eastern Arctic and Okhotsk Sea bowheads; western gray whales; most blue whale populations; white whales; narwhals; river dolphins; Black Sea dolphins; and the vaquita. It was also noted that all whale species/populations subject to exploitation are of special management interest to the IWC.

The Workshop also developed a list of species particularly suitable as subjects of research on the effects of climate change. It comprised minke, humpback, right, blue, bowhead, gray, killer and white whales, together with the bottlenose dolphin and harbour porpoise.

The Workshop recognised that given the uncertainties in modelling climate change at a suitable scale and thus modelling effects on biological processes, at present it is not possible to model in a predictive manner the effects of climate change on cetacean populations. Despite this, the Workshop believed that the available evidence is sufficient to warrant some general concern for cetaceans.

The Workshop developed a list of factors to be borne in mind when assessing potential research programmes.

The Workshop stressed the major difficulties in reaching the long-term goal of being able to usefully predict the effects of change on cetacean populations, given the complexities of the physical and biological processes involved. It is clear that if any progress is to be made in describing and understanding pathways, this must be carried out within the context of a multidisciplinary, multinational focused programme of research that concentrates on those species/areas where there is most chance of success. The Workshop strongly recommended that the Scientific Committee (and the Commission) consider ways to facilitate the development and execution of such research.

In considering the accommodation of IWC interests in the framework of existing programmes, it was noted that it is essential to continue to strengthen and forge links with other relevant international organisations. It is particularly important that, where possible, the IWC becomes involved in the planning stages of cooperative programmes. It is not sufficient merely to ask that cetacean sightings be recorded. The IWC should consider developing and distributing advice on standard data collection and methodology and, where appropriate, encourage the placement of trained observers on existing surveys, taking into account the spatial and temporal aspects of the sampling.

The Workshop noted the particular relevance of the work of CCAMLR and Southern Ocean GLOBEC to its work. It recommended that joint CCAMLR-IWC and GLOBEC-IWC working groups be established to consider collaborative work in the Southern Ocean. Similarly it notes the value of the SCAR/APIS programme which is investigating the role of other marine mammals in the Antarctic. A number of other SCAR programmes are of relevance to the IWC and the Workshop recommended that the Secretary contacts SCAR with a view to establishing formal IWC/SCAR links.

The input from the IPCC was essential to the conduct of the Workshop. The Workshop recommended that IPCC be contacted about the possibility of IWC input to the next series of reports.

The Workshop noted that a number of other organisations were undertaking work of potential value to the IWC. It recommended continued contact with such organisations and requests that they be sent copies of this report.

Many member nations of the IWC are carrying out related work under national research programmes. The Workshop recommended that member governments make known the interest of the IWC in such work and recommended that they consider contacting the IWC with a view to adding cetacean components where appropriate. The need to consult the IWC for advice on standard data collection and analytical methodology was stressed.

In considering the implications for the work of the Scientific Committee the Workshop urged that the impetus generated by its report and recommendations should not be lost. It made a number of suggestions:

(a)

that the Scientific Committee invites scientists with the relevant expertise to its regular meetings and member nations include such experts on their national delegations;

(b)

the holding of a future Workshop to review progress;

(c)

that a mechanism should be developed to synthesise results of the various topics included in the overall examination of effects of environmental change on cetaceans and in particular the results of the two Workshops held thus far;

(d)

that consideration should be given to the collection of samples and associated data from any directed takes of cetaceans under IWC regulations.

Current attempts to predict the effects of climate change on cetaceans are severely limited by the inherent uncertainties in the Global Circulation Models and other models, the mismatch of scales, the lack of knowledge of biological responses of both cetaceans and their prey and the lack of suitable models (including a guiding conceptual model of how cetaceans interact with their environment) and data for several of the many stages of the predictive process.

However, in accord with the precautionary principle, the Workshop believed that the uncertainty about the effects of climatic change implicit throughout its deliberations makes it possible to suggest broad management actions that the Commission might urge its member governments to take. The Workshop recommended, and the Scientific Committee endorsed:

(1)

that the IWC urges its member nations to abide by the provisions of the UN Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (and amendments);

(2)

that the IWC urges its member governments to join international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In discussion of the Workshop report the Scientific Committee noted that the Workshop had recognised that in order to predict the effects of climate change on cetaceans, the physical and biological processes affecting the temporal and spatial patterns of cetacean distribution and abundance must first be established. The Scientific Committee agreed to the following objectives in that context.

(1)

Define how changes in the physical environment and the biological environment influence cetacean species': (a) distributions, abundance and stock structure; (b) extent and timing of migrations; (c) fitness (condition factors).

(2)

Define the spatial and temporal scales of variability in the ocean most important to cetacean species.

(3)

Determine which oceanographic processes in the marine ecosystem best explain interannual or longer-term changes in the geographic and temporal variability in cetacean distribution and abundance.

(4)

Reduce the variance in estimating trends of cetacean distribution and abundance by quantifying the amount of variability in sighting surveys related to environmental variability.

The Scientific Committee recognised that there are numerous lines of research which could be pursued to try to meet these objectives. The following two broad approaches were proposed.

(1)

An ecosystems approach which examines physical-biological processes related to the availability of cetacean prey; this could be accomplished through IWC collaboration with international, extant marine ecosystem programmes such as Southern Ocean GLOBEC and CCAMLR.

(2)

Investigation of the power of time-series of various data types on cetacean populations to detect the effects of environmental change on their population dynamics - this requires concurrent time-series of both environmental data and cetacean population parameters or indices of fitness. This approach relies first on: a more retrospective analysis of existing time-series on cetacean distributions; timing of migrations; indices of fitness; and physical datasets of similar temporal and spatial resolution.

The Scientific Committee supported the initiative represented by the Workshop on Climate Change and agreed to establish a Standing Working Group to work intersessionally to oversee and facilitate the examination of effects of environmental change on cetaceans. The Standing Working Group might meet, normally at an Annual Meeting, should the Convenor and the Chairman of the Scientific Committee deem that sufficient progress had been made to warrant this.

The Scientific Committee welcomed the thorough report of the Workshop and fully endorsed the recommendations therein.

ARCTIC ISSUES
This item had been placed on the Scientific Committee's agenda in response to a request by the Commission which had also asked for comment on a draft Resolution submitted at last year's Commission meeting. The Workshop on Climate Change had included the Arctic region in its discussions reported above.

The Scientific Committee had two papers submitted on this item, one which had initially been considered at the Workshop on the development of an aboriginal subsistence whaling management procedure. The authors concluded that any new management procedure for aboriginal subsistence whaling should be tested for robustness to climate change effects. The second paper looked at observations and predictions of Arctic climate change and proposed that in view of both model predictions and recently observed trends in the Arctic climate, monitoring of the physical environment (e.g. sea ice extent) and the seasonal distribution of potential indicator species (e.g. bowhead whale, narwhal and white whale) should be accorded some priority. It also examined potential effects on cetaceans, particularly in terms of possible changes in distribution (and potentially gene flow) and unknown effects on cetacean prey.

In discussion, the importance of investigating the role of ice-related processes to cetacean ecology was stressed, as was the need for cooperation with other organisations working on environment-related matters in the Arctic.

15.3.2 Action arising
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CETACEANS
The USA, Netherlands, Austria, UK, France and the Republic of Korea all congratulated the Scientific Committee for the work undertaken and endorsed the recommendations of the Workshop. The UK also offered to financially support an intersessional meeting of the Standing Working Group. Denmark cautioned against jumping to conclusions on the effects of global warming and the Russian Federation, while encouraging international cooperation, noted that at present it is not possible to model the effects of climate change on cetacean populations. questioned the validity of the management recommendations and asked for the financial implications of the proposals. Australia suggested that the Commission might note these two particular recommendations, which it did, while adopting the remainder subject to any later budgetary considerations. Japan accepted this arrangement but pointed out the need to be more specific on the research required, which may be outside the terms of the Commission's work.

ARCTIC ISSUES
France was happy with this focus on the situation in the Arctic which should be continued and linked with the Arctic environment protection strategy system. However, the Russian Federation reiterated its position that Arctic research should be considered the responsibility of the eight Arctic nations making up the International Arctic Science Committee and a new body being created, the Arctic Council, and it was not in favour of the IWC initiating any research. Norway supported this position, for although the IWC had a role as far as stock estimates are concerned, environmental work should not be duplicated. Denmark and Finland concurred. France emphasised the need to obtain the information needed, not duplicate it, and the Chairman stated that nothing which had been said inhibited the Scientific Committee from discharging the responsibilities given it by the Commission.

MEXICAN SALT WORKS PROPOSAL
Last year the Commission agreed to a request by Mexico for assistance in the selection of a scientist or scientists expert in the fields of gray whale migration and reproduction to assist it in reaching a scientifically-based decision regarding the proposed expansion of commercial salt operations in the El Vizcaino Biosphere Reserve in Baja California. After consultation three scientists were nominated to the Scientific Advisory Committee and participated in a number of meetings which developed scientific terms of reference for an environmental impact assessment to constitute the primary environmental aspects that will be addressed and will form the basis of the review of the assessment. Recommendations concerning the ecological feasibility of the project will be passed on to the Mexican authorities who will make the final decision. The three scientists are acting in their individual capacities.

Mexico distributed a press statement on the current status of the process and thanked the Commission for its support in identifying specialists for this process.

RESOLUTIONS
Australia, Austria, Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, USA and UK cosponsored a Resolution on environmental change and cetaceans. Australia noted that environmental change is an issue of concern to everyone and this Resolution was developed to provide endorsement and support from the Commission for the efforts of the Scientific Committee to establish a Standing Working Group to facilitate examination of the issues and to develop a range of cooperative and collaborative programmes which it has identified.

There was some discussion of a proposed amendment by Antigua and Barbuda to add wording for collaboration between the Scientific Committee and member governments, so that it could draw on experience and knowledge for its programme on climate change impact. Following interventions by the USA, Netherlands and St Lucia, an acceptable form of words was agreed. Japan recorded its concern over the establishment and proposed activities of the Standing Working Group but would not break the consensus. Norway also participated in the consensus but noted its view that some recommendations, especially on the effects of pollution on whale stocks, cannot be properly addressed without the use of lethal methods. France was particularly happy with the two Arctic references.

The Resolution shown in Appendix 8 was then adopted by consensus.

A draft Resolution proposed by Japan and Norway on the need for enhanced research and monitoring activities was discussed. After amendment by the Netherlands to call on governments to include certain research topics identified by the Scientific Committee, and to undertake research by non-lethal means, Austria, UK, Australia, Monaco, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile, France, Finland and Spain recorded similar positions. The USA stated that it would need references in the preamble and operative paragraphs to non-lethal methods and research in the Sanctuary before it could support the Resolution, which the UK supported, and France suggested some specific language which was supported by New Zealand.

Japan had hoped to contribute to the work of the Commission and the Scientific Committee by the Resolution, but had no intention to prolong the debate and therefore withdrew the proposal.

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