(from "Chairman's Report of the Fiftieth Annual Meeting")

ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION
At last year's meeting an intersessional Working Group was re-established to test the performance of abundance estimation procedures over an appropriate range of sighting survey factors. During the intersessional period, two additional estimation methods were applied to the simulation datasets. Also during the intersessional period more sets of simulated datasets with different conditions were created and more replicates of all the datasets were (and continue to be) created so that there will eventually be 100 replicates of each set of data.

The intersessional Working Group also began discussions about what topics should be addressed in the near future. It recognised that the remit was broad and so should focus on topics that are the most relevant to abundance estimates that are currently (or will in the near future be) submitted to the Scientific Committee. The Scientific Committee re-established the intersessional Working Group to continue its work testing the performance of abundance estimation procedures over an appropriate range of sighting survey factors.

IWC-DESS
The Scientific Committee established a Working Group to consider the future maintenance, support and development of the IWC-DESS. It proposed that the best way for the Secretariat to ensure the appropriate maintenance, support and development of the DESS is to fund a part-time post at the University of St Andrews. This would have a number of advantages concerning the working environment, flexibility and continuity. The cost to the Secretariat was estimated at approximately 9,000 plus VAT per annum. Routine requests for data from accredited members of the Scientific Committee and international organisations would still be handled by the Secretariat. The Scientific Committee recommended that the proposal be adopted as a matter of priority.

STOCK IDENTITY
It was suggested that it may be useful for the Scientific Committee to reconsider its definitions of the term stock. The importance of the stock definition, or population subdivision, for the purposes of management and conservation of whale resources by the IWC is obvious. Under the New Management Procedure (NMP), the IWC managed the different whale species using specific 'management units'. An example of these 'management units' is the six management Areas in the Southern Hemisphere used by the IWC to manage the baleen whales species (except Bryde's whale).

To date, most studies on stock identity of large whale species have attempted to test hypotheses that IWC management units (management stocks) correspond to biologically defined entities (biological stocks). There has been substantial development in techniques useful for determining stock structure in recent years, especially genetics-based methods. The Scientific Committee agreed that, given this development, it would be useful to undertake a review with the goal of establishing more useful definitions of the term stock.

An ad hoc Working Group was established to develop terms of reference for such a review, and to outline the tasks that it may be useful to address overall in such a review. The Scientific Committee agreed that a Steering Group should work intersessionally to further the work and present an update to the next meeting of the Committee. An intersessional workshop was proposed and may be necessary after the next meeting.

11.1.2 Action arising
The Commission noted and accepted all these actions.

11.2 Whale stocks
11.2.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
11.2.1.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BALEEN WHALES
BLUE WHALES
The Scientific Committee noted that it had not been possible to develop revised estimates of blue whale abundance from the IDCR/SOWER cruise programme in time for this meeting. It looked forward to receiving such estimates at its next meeting.

The Scientific Committee stated its concern that reliable distinction between 'true' and pygmy blue whales in the field was becoming increasingly important, given that the results of the 1996/97 SOWER cruise had indicated that the simple geographical separation of the two forms in summer previously used may no longer be entirely valid. This means that sightings estimates in high latitudes in summer may contain some proportion of pygmy blue whales.

The surfacing behaviour of putative 'true' and pygmy blue whales had been recorded on the first two (1995/96 and 1996/97) blue whale cruises, using high-resolution digital video recording, and an analysis of sounds recorded in the vicinity of blue whales off Chile on the 1997/98 blue whale cruise was reported.

A summary of what the IDCR/SOWER cruises to date could tell about acoustic distinction between 'true' blue and pygmy blue whales was provided. All the recordings made in the Antarctic in 1996/97 in the vicinity of putative 'true' blue whales differed greatly from anything recorded on the cruises off Australia in 1995/96, south of Madagascar in 1996/97 or off Chile in 1997/98. Preliminary reports from the 1997/98 Antarctic SOWER cruise suggested that calls similar to those recorded in the Antarctic in 1996/97 had been heard. It therefore appeared that 'true' blue whales may produce different vocalisations from pygmy blue whales.

The Scientific Committee recommended that all blue whale recordings from these cruises should be gathered in one place and put in a format that makes them accessible to researchers. It also agreed that discrimination between 'true' and pygmy blue whales should be a major topic at the Committee's next meeting.

SOWER CRUISES
The Scientific Committee reviewed the report of the 1997/98 IWC/SOWER blue whale cruise, the third to be undertaken as part of the IWC's research programme on Southern Hemisphere blue whales. It recommended that a paper be submitted to next year's meeting, documenting the criteria used on each of the three blue whale cruises for identifying the two blue whale forms, listing the results and the personnel responsible for making the identifications, and providing an analysis of the photographic and video material in support of the criteria used.

Blue whale research was also conducted during the 1997/98 IWC/SOWER cruise to Area IIW, although the primary objective of this cruise had been to estimate the abundance of minke whales.

Following problems experienced on previous blue whale cruises with obtaining biopsies from whales that were difficult to approach, IWC funding was provided to develop a more powerful delivery system.

In the Commission, Chile commented on the high quality of the SOWER programme in which it had participated last year.

RIGHT WHALES
REPORT OF THE CAPE TOWN WORKSHOP
The Scientific Committee received the report of the Special Meeting on the Comprehensive Assessment of Right Whales that was held in Cape Town in March 1998. Mr J. Bannister, who had chaired the Workshop, provided a summary and presented a compilation of the most important recommendations to the Committee. It agreed to endorse all the recommendations contained in the report. However, it gives highest priority to the items listed within the two categories, A and B, below.

(A)

Recommendations with management implications. These are particularly important for those stocks for which the Workshop has expressed concern over status. The Scientific Committee identified ship strikes and incidental entanglements in fishing gear as the most significant causes of human-induced mortality of right whales. The management recommendations are given in Annex O of the Scientific Committee report¹.

(B)

Recommendations for research. The Workshop had made a large number of research recommendations and the Scientific Committee reiterated the value it attaches to all of those recommendations. However, it recognised the need to assign priorities in the context of IWC interest. It agreed with the Workshop that, in particular, this applies to questions associated with the 'trend and condition of whale stocks' and 'measures for the[ir] conservation' (Article IV of the Convention).

¹ J. Cetacean Res. Manage. (Suppl.) 1: 259-61.

In this regard, the Scientific Committee confirmed it's view previously expressed, of the extreme importance of maintaining research effort when investigating trends in both abundance and in biological parameters. The Workshop therefore stressed that high priority should be given to the continuation of both demographic photo-identification studies and surveys designed to improve knowledge of absolute abundance and current trends. Similarly, high priority should be given to the processing and analysis of such data. This is particularly important for the western North Atlantic where there are serious concerns over the status of the stock.

The Scientific Committee also noted the need to initiate and improve such studies in areas of identified concentrations where they are either absent or in their infancy. High priority should be given to those areas where it is believed there is most chance of success.

In order to interpret data on trends and abundance it is important to determine appropriate management units. In this context, high priority should be given to stock identification studies that will answer questions believed to be hindering the Scientific Committee's ability to address important conservation questions. Genetic sampling programmes should be initiated where needed, and maintained in areas where increased sample sizes are needed for statistical validity.

The Scientific Committee agreed that high priority should be given to research that will lead directly to improved methods of reducing anthropogenic mortality (e.g. reducing ship strikes and fishing gear entanglements) for stocks for which there is concern over their survival, and to research examining environmental factors that affect the fecundity and mortality rates of right whale populations (e.g. food limitation, pollution).

From the genetic standpoint, two questions are of high priority: (1) what are the implications of the low haplotype diversity detected in certain populations; and (2) is the effective population size of right whales significantly lower than the abundance estimates?

Given these priorities, the Scientific Committee recommended that the Commission urges member governments to provide the necessary support, including funding, for the particular research items below.

(1)

Continuation of existing programmes of photo-identification, surveys, etc. for assessing and monitoring population status and the establishment of new programmes; use of computerised techniques for matching photographs should be considered as appropriate.

(2)

Processing and analysis of data collected under (1).

(3)

Development of methodology and application of existing methodology for analysing survivorship and other biological parameters in northwest Atlantic right whales.

(4)

Increased efforts to determine the recent population trajectory of the northwest Atlantic population, including, as a matter of urgency, use of more complex, including stochastic, models.

(5)

Research to determine the current status of right whales in areas of the Southern Hemisphere which were historically important but for which there is no recent information.

(6)

Investigation of two additional Antarctic datasets for trend analysis - JSV sightings data 1965/66-1981/82 and JARPA data 1987/88-present.

(7)

Expansion of research efforts to better understand the status of the North Pacific and eastern North Atlantic populations and any human-related problems they may have, including a further dedicated sighting survey in the Okhotsk Sea following the Scientific Committee's guidelines for surveys.

(8)

Comparative studies to try to determine factors to explain the difference between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere populations reproductive parameters.

(9)

Investigation of problems of stock structure, by ocean basin, i.e. for

(a)

Western North Atlantic: directed genetic sampling of females on the calving ground, any unsampled animals in Massachusetts Bay and the Great South Channel, and of 'Fundy-none' females; further examination of available information on mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of individual whales to test for heterogeneity in regional re-sighting probabilities, scarring patterns and reproductive success; acquisition of further historical samples for the central and eastern North Atlantic preferably prior to the nineteenth century.

(b)

North Pacific: further biopsy sampling in all regions; additional analysis of historical samples available in Japan.

(c)

Southern Hemisphere: additional genetic sampling to characterise regional relationships, particularly the calving grounds; sampling from feeding grounds for more reliable allocation of catches to calving stocks; collection of biopsy samples from vessels in programmes such as CCAMLR, SO-GLOBEC and BAS krill surveys; and timely analysis of both extant and future biopsy samples including the large sample from South Africa. Where possible, biopsy samples should be collected from a minimum of 20-50 individuals and should be repeated in at least each of three consecutive years in calving areas.

Although the results of the special meeting represented a major advance in understanding the status of right whales worldwide, the Scientific Committee noted that there were still a number of outstanding questions regarding the status of the population in the western North Atlantic. Although the population was known to be small (ca 300 individuals), and well below its unexploited size, its current dynamics were unclear. At the same time, it was subject to a range of anthropogenic threats, including ship strikes and fishery entanglements. The Scientific Committee therefore recommended that the western North Atlantic right whale should be a priority topic for next year's meeting, with the objectives being to establish the current status and dynamics of the population. A three-day intersessional workshop prior to next year's Scientific Committee meeting was proposed. A schedule and a budget that would allow for a number of invited participants to attend was developed by a steering committee.

The Scientific Committee noted that if it is judged that insufficient progress on required analyses has been made in advance of the special meeting for it to be held, they expected that at least relevant papers on progress to date would be submitted to next year's Scientific Committee meeting.

In the Commission, Brazil drew attention to the recommendations for the establishment of new protected areas for right whales, a topic it will be examining very soon; and the establishment of the Southern Hemisphere Right Whale Consortium. New Zealand also commended the latter.

The USA announced that at the forthcoming meeting of the International Maritime Organisation, it will seek strong measures to protect the northern right whale, by requiring commercial ships entering the whale's calving and feeding grounds to report by radio to the US Coastguard which will relay back the latest information on the whales' locations and advise on avoiding collisions.

Japan noted the contribution made to blue whale research by the IDCR and SOWER programmes stemming from the 1993 Kyoto meeting Resolution on blue whales, and the use of Japanese vessels, researchers and funding for this work.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HUMPBACK WHALES
ESTABLISHMENT OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE DIRECTORY AND ANTARCTIC CATALOGUE
The Scientific Committee recommended that the IWC Secretariat continue with arrangements to create the directory of Southern Hemisphere humpback whale identification photographs, as recommended last year.

ABUNDANCE AND TRENDS
For the first time, humpback whales were the dominant species in Area IV surveyed during JARPA 1997/98. Indices of abundance suggested an increasing density of humpback whales from 1989/90 to 1997/98. Sightings from Area IV during the 1995/96 summer were made from the Australian ice-breaker Aurora Australis, which was carrying out a krill acoustic survey. During the 1997/98 summer, sighting surveys were carried out in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the Brazilian Antarctic supply ship Ary Rongel, using line transect methodology. An analysis of the sightings of humpback whales made on two and an incomplete third circumpolar IDCR/SOWER survey, covering the period 1978/79 to 1995/96 was also considered. The results indicated an increase from 7,500 humpback whales in the first set of surveys to 11,800 in the second set and 15,700 whales in the third (as yet incomplete) set of surveys.

The Scientific Committee noted that conclusions on possible rates of increase should not be based on comparisons by Area, as these estimates had large CVs and were subject to possible additional variance due to inter-survey shifts in distribution.

Catches of humpback whales by modern whaling in the Southern Hemisphere were reviewed, along with the number of catcher vessels operating in each of a number of whaling grounds. Data were obtained from both published and unpublished sources, but did not include the undeclared catches of humpback whales by either the Soviet fleets or the Olympic Challenger. Crude catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices were calculated as annual catch per catcher vessel for each ground. Most grounds showed marked declines in the initial 10 years of whaling followed by either (1) closure of the ground, with some subsequent recovery of the stock, or (2) low catches until the cessation of humpback whaling in October 1963. Estimates of abundance and population trends from after 1963, show Southern Hemisphere populations to be undergoing some recovery in all areas where surveys have been undertaken.

STOCK STRUCTURE
Two genetic papers were considered describing the distribution and worldwide diversity of humpback whale mtDNA lineages. The Scientific Committee recommended that dedicated surveys should be carried out to establish the status of humpback whales in the northwest Indian Ocean, and that these should include the collection of biopsy material from which the genetic relationships of this stock could be investigated.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON CATCHES
Several previously unreported mark recoveries from the Soviet factory ship Slava in the Southern Hemisphere were reported. From 1955-66, 51 recoveries (25 humpbacks) had been found: only six of the humpback records had been reported previously. These are probably only a small fraction of the number of recoveries actually made. The need to obtain further information on mark recoveries and marks fired under the Soviet scheme was stressed. The Scientific Committee thanked Dr Y. Mikhalev for his efforts, and urged him and his colleagues to continue their invaluable work in retrieving catch and marking data from previous Soviet whaling operations.

FUTURE SPECIAL MEETING
The Scientific Committee noted progress in a number of areas in the assessment of southern hemisphere humpback whale stocks, as reported above. While work is still required to complete many of those tasks, it noted that little or no action has yet been possible, given the short interval between the Annual Meetings (and for other reasons) on a number of other tasks recommended last year.

(i)

Acquisition and entry of revised Soviet catch data - Secretariat - no new data have been acquired.

(ii)

Investigation of the availability of original Soviet scheme marking data - Secretariat - ongoing.

(iii)

Creation and maintenance of a centralised directory of Southern Hemisphere humpback whale photo-identification catalogues - Secretariat - action required.

(iv)

Collection of biopsy samples from three main strata: breeding ground, feeding ground, migratory corridor - national groups - some action.

(v)

Monitoring of abundance to continue or be initiated where no survey programme exists - national groups - new survey data have been reported this year.

(vi)

Inclusion of humpback whales as targets for biopsy and photo-identification in future Antarctic survey expeditions in the South Georgia region - national groups - no action reported.

(vii)

Researchers in photo-identification programmes to evaluate the likelihood of obtaining estimates of biological parameters - national groups/individual scientists - no results reported.

(viii)

Comparison of currently observed increase rates to be considered in conjunction with a review of demographic parameters for Southern Hemisphere humpbacks and a comparison with information on increase rates and demographic parameters for North Atlantic and (North Pacific) populations - Scientific Committee - no action. The Scientific Committee established an intersessional working group to consider the item.

(ix)

Progress report on retrieval of detailed Soviet catch data - relevant scientists - no action reported.

In light of these outstanding matters requiring action, the Scientific Committee agreed that it would be in a better position at next year's meeting to decide when a Comprehensive Assessment might occur. Experience gained during the preliminary assessment to be considered at that meeting should also assist in identifying important issues to be settled before the Comprehensive Assessment could take place.

In the Commission, Japan emphasised the valuable results being obtained from its JARPA programme, including sightings for abundance estimates and genetics from the catches under Special Permit.

11.2.1.2 NORTH PACIFIC MINKE WHALES
At its 1996 meeting, the Scientific Committee developed a set of Implementation Simulation Trials for North Pacific minke whales and recommended that the Secretariat develop a computer program to implement these trials and then conduct them. The trials involve 13 sub-Areas in the North Pacific and consider two hypotheses regarding the number of breeding stocks of minke whales in the North Pacific. At this year's meeting, the sub-committee on the Revised Management Procedure established a Working Group to finalise the specifications for the trials, taking into account discussions during the meeting.

UNCERTAINTY OVER CATCHES
The CLA states that 'known 'indirect' catches, e.g. whales killed through entanglement in fishing gear, should also be included in the catch history' in the RMP. Although it was generally agreed by the Commission last year that, as far as possible, the CLA should be used 'to determine the allowable removals and then take account of all known human-induced mortalities', other views were also expressed. The Scientific Committee therefore agreed that trials should be conducted in which: (a) the incidental catches are taken over and above commercial catches as set by the RMP; and (b) in which the removals from each sub-Area are the maxima of the incidental catches and the catches set by the RMP. This last case corresponds to the assumption that the RMP catch limits cover all non-natural removals.

SIGHTINGS SURVEY PLANNING - REPORT OF INTERSESSIONAL WORKING GROUP
Last year, an intersessional North Pacific Sighting Survey Steering Group (NPSSSG) was established and addressed several issues. The Scientific Committee noted that the proposed determination of dive times using visual observations was not recommended as it is difficult to be confident about tracking individual animals as some surfacings may be missed. It recommended the use of other approaches such as monitoring diving using VHF telemetry. The use of binoculars for searching and distance estimation was discussed. The Scientific Committee recommended that the experiments and testing of estimation of angles and distances should be conducted using the same methods as in the actual survey.

The Scientific Committee considered the requirements for participation of a member of the Committee in this survey. It agreed that Scientific Committee representation on the planned survey should take the form of participation of a scientist with active experience of surveys of the type proposed (hazard probability approach) and other methods that may be incorporated.

The Scientific Committee reiterated from last year its strong recommendation that the survey includes waters within the Russian EEZ in order to provide the necessary coverage. It recommended that the Commission requests the relevant authorities of the Russian Federation to grant permission for the vessels to operate in their EEZ. The Committee agreed that, if permission is not granted, additional trials should be specified to represent a worst case scenario that no surveys would be conducted in, and no future catches would be taken from, the Russian EEZ in this sub-Area. More generally, the Committee agreed that this recommendation should apply to all relevant countries in similar situations for all such surveys in the future.

REVISION OF TRIALS SPECIFICATION
The Scientific Committee considered the new information regarding stock structure for North Pacific minke whales in the context of whether it implied that changes had to be made to the specifications of the Implementation Simulation Trials. The Committee agreed, as a matter of expediency, to use the results of trials for North Pacific minke whales to limit the extent of future trials in this manner. It noted that it has not finalised discussion on the relative plausibility of the hypotheses underlying the trials. It also agreed that further discussion would be needed of how results of trials were best evaluated for scenarios with differing relative plausibilities and those for which there were differences of opinion about plausibility, when the results became available.

The Scientific Committee agreed the revised specification for North Pacific minke whale Implementation Simulation Trials and recommended as a high priority that the Secretariat conduct the trials during the intersessional period and report the results to next year's meeting.

Two years ago the Scientific Committee had established a Steering Group to consider and resolve any inconsistencies that remained when the trials were conditioned and run and make decisions about the choices. It re-established this Steering Group with the following Terms of Reference:

(1)

to review results of the specified initial trials intersessionally by correspondence;

(2)

to advise the Secretariat of those trials that need not be carried out if the initial results are not sensitive to the differences among the associated hypotheses being tested;

(3)

to effect minor amendments to the specifications as may be necessary to match the conditioning requirements therein.

In the Commission, Japan pointed out that its Special Permit research catches were providing useful data, particularly to test the stock identity hypotheses.

The Republic of Korea expressed its concern over the use of the name 'Sea of Japan', which it prefers to call the East Sea, and suggested that both names should be used until the matter is resolved. The Secretary commented that he had asked for advice on this matter from the UN, but no agreement has been reached there yet. Japan indicated that it had counter arguments to those of the Republic of Korea, and also pointed out that the stocks under discussion were not in this area.

11.2.1.3 NORTH ATLANTIC MINKE WHALES
NORTHEASTERN STOCK
Two years ago it was agreed that additional analyses should be undertaken with respect to the estimates of abundance for northeast Atlantic minke whales from the NASS 1989/90 and NILS-95 surveys. An intersessional Steering Group was established to undertake the analyses but although significant progress was made by that Group at last year's meeting, definitive answers were not reached. Consequently, the Steering Group was asked to continue work on these issues intersessionally.

Overall, the Scientific Committee agreed that the comparative results from the different implementations, combined with the other additional new information, meant that the task of undertaking additional analyses with respect to the estimates of abundance for northeast Atlantic minke whales from the NASS-89/90 and NILS-95 surveys, as defined at the 48th Annual Meeting, had now been completed. It further agreed that the results from these analyses do not indicate any problem with the estimates in terms of the issues that had been raised at the 48th Annual Meeting and supported the Committee's previous conclusion that the abundance estimates are adequate for use in the RMP.

CENTRAL STOCK
Last year, the Scientific Committee had noted an apparent discrepancy between the previously accepted abundance estimate for the NASS-87 Icelandic aerial survey block and a recent reanalysis of these data. Following consideration of the source of this discrepancy, the Committee agreed that the previously accepted estimate should remain (pending resolution of the matters raised). The Scientific Committee noted that the data from this survey had been provided for use during the current meeting. However, no arrangements were in place for continuing access. It agreed that if the estimate is to be used in the implementation of the RMP, then the data would need to be available on a continuing basis in accordance with the Requirements and Guidelines for Conducting Surveys and Analysing Data within the Revised Management Scheme. This was considered critical in order that issues, such as those raised in the discussion, could be examined further, if necessary, whenever they arise.

11.2.1.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MINKE WHALES
The Scientific Committee received a report on work to address outstanding issues regarding the Japanese Research Programme in the Antarctic (JARPA) that had been raised at last year's meeting. This included: developing methods to correct bias in abundance estimates; stock definition; statistical analysis of mtDNA; a pilot study on nuclear DNA; availability of low-latitude genetic material; analysis of morphometrics; examination of stock boundaries between Areas IV and V; a segregation study; recalculations of biological parameters by biological stock; and a mesoscale survey plan for ecosystem and environmental change. In addition, the Scientific Committee had discussed the availability of samples from past commercial whaling for stock identification analysis and the problem of representativeness of samples. Although the interval since the last meeting had been unusually short, the Scientific Committee found it helpful to receive this progress report, and looked forward to more detailed responses at its next meeting.

The Scientific Committee also received the cruise report of the 1997/98 SOWER Antarctic cruise in Area IIW (60-30°W and south of 60°S). Japan had supplied two research vessels and for the first time four researchers were carried on each. The Scientific Committee expressed its thanks to the Japanese Government for the generous provision of these vessels for both this cruise and the SOWER blue whale cruise, and to the participating researchers for their efforts.

The 1997/98 JARPA survey had been conducted in Area IV and the eastern part of Area III. One dedicated sightings vessel and three sightings/sampling vessels were engaged in a closing mode sightings survey. The proportion of sexually mature animals was very low amongst the females (22.7%) in Area IV, and immature females dominated in the southern stratum. It was suspected that most of the mature females had moved into ice-free waters inside the pack-ice edge where the research vessel could not enter. It was suggested that one of the probable reasons for the character of the present survey results was the different shape of the ice edge.

In discussion, the question of the implications of the apparent environmental effect on the observed maturity rate in females was raised, particularly as it related to the success of the JARPA programme in obtaining representative samples. It was not known whether the trend would continue, and further study was needed to compare the data with previous results.

Field characters for distinguishing between the two forms of southern minke whale were described and illustrated. This is important if abundance estimates from sightings surveys are to be correctly allocated. The results of RFLP analysis of the mitochondrial DNA in minke whales from Areas V and VI sampled during the 1996/97 JARPA survey were also presented. VPA analyses of Southern Hemisphere minke whales in Areas IV and V concluded that constant pre-exploitation recruitment was consistent with the basic input data and population dynamics model used. The Scientific Committee recommend that both (a) age and sex distributions as a function of latitude and longitude on a fine scale and (b) sensitivity tests encompassing a range of selectivity patterns, should be considered further at its 1999 meeting.

In the Commission, Japan again reiterated its view that JARPA is carrying out basic scientific work for the Scientific Committee and providing useful data, especially concerning the two stocks in the research area, and the segregation of males and females. It regretted that the Commission prevented the implementation of the RMP for these whales, which had been requested by a Contracting Government, and it would propose a Resolution under Agenda Item 17.

11.2.1.5 NORTH PACIFIC BRYDE'S WHALES
SPECIFICATION OF IMPLEMENTATION SIMULATION TRIALS
The Scientific Committee completed the Comprehensive Assessment of North Pacific Bryde's whales at its 1996 meeting and recommended development of Implementation Simulation Trials; this recommendation was accepted by the Commission. At last year's meeting, the Scientific Committee considered information about stock identity and historical catches of North Pacific Bryde's whales. It identified seven tasks which, if completed during the intersessional period, would assist in the development of Implementation Simulation Trials. An intersessional e-mail correspondence group was established to facilitate completion of these tasks.

Three hypotheses had been proposed concerning the local form of Bryde's whale:

(1)

only the ordinary form is found in stock division (b), as defined in the 1996 Comprehensive Assessment;

(2)

animals of the local form are found around oceanic islands within this division; and

(3)

Southern Hemisphere Bryde's whales move into division (b) occasionally.

There was neither sufficient time to finalise discussion of the plausibility of the three hypotheses, nor, therefore, to finalise agreement on how to model the structure of inshore and offshore Bryde's whales in and around major island groups.

After considerable discussion of the available data and the areas to which they pertained, the Scientific Committee agreed an appropriate boundary for the western stock of North Pacific Bryde's whales for the purposes of the RMP. This specifically excluded the area to the south of the Hawaiian Islands and east of 180° from which there were no data. The Scientific Committee further agreed that there should be two sub-Areas in this stock area divided by 180° which would allow the testing of two alternative stock hypotheses:

(1)

there is only one offshore stock of Bryde's whales in the western stock area;

(2)

there are two offshore stocks present in the sub-Area to the east: a western stock and an eastern stock.

The Scientific Committee agreed that the detailed work of specifying trials was best conducted at a separate meeting and recommended that such a meeting take place intersessionally.

SIGHTINGS SURVEY PLANNING
The Scientific Committee noted that it was planned for future sightings surveys to cover the entire western stock area as defined over a four year period, and it strongly recommended that the surveys include waters within the EEZs of the Federated states of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the USA in order to provide the necessary coverage. The Secretary informed the Scientific Committee that he had received a letter from the government of the Marshall Islands granting permission to conduct surveys in its waters.

In the Commission, Japan welcomed the work of the Scientific Committee, and requested that the implementation trials should be carried out.

11.2.1.6 OTHER STOCKS
NORTH ATLANTIC HUMPBACK WHALES
The Scientific Committee received an update on the status of information on the North Atlantic humpback whale. Considerable progress had been made, including papers published, in press or in preparation on abundance, trends, population structure, migration and breeding grounds, and catch data. The most important papers from the YONAH (Years of the North Atlantic Humpback) project are expected to be available by the end of 1998.

It was stressed that while every effort would be made to construct as comprehensive a catch history for the North Atlantic as possible, it was likely that the total catch will never be known completely, and this would constrain what could or could not be done in the Comprehensive Assessment.

Apart from an incomplete catch history, two main gaps for an assessment were identified: (1) lack of information on the distribution and abundance of humpback whales in the southeast Caribbean (Windward Islands) and off the Cape Verde Islands; and (2) their relationship to humpback whales in the rest of the North Atlantic. The Scientific Committee recommended that the possibility of collaborative research on humpback whales in the southeast Caribbean be explored with national authorities in the area, and the use of combined acoustic and visual methods be investigated to facilitate the collection of abundance and individual identification data.

Given the progress noted above, and the likely time frame for the availability of other analyses, the Scientific Committee recommended that a Comprehensive Assessment of North Atlantic humpback whales be carried out in 2000. Since this population is subject to a small aboriginal take at Bequia in the West Indies and had in the recent past been subject to an aboriginal hunt in Greenland, there was justification in giving the Comprehensive Assessment of this stock priority over other humpback whale stocks.

NORTH PACIFIC HUMPBACK WHALES
The North Pacific Humpback Whale Fluke Catalogue maintained by the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Seattle, contains over 24,000 photographs and 1,010 resights of individual whales from at least a five-year period have been found, with resights spanning 20 years. The catalogue is being used to examine calf mortality and average reproductive interval.

A mark-recapture analysis for North Pacific humpback whales from the years 1991-1993 was considered, although the paper itself was not available to the Scientific Committee. The results are accompanied by caveats, but the authors presented an estimate for the whole North Pacific between 1991 and 1993 of approximately 6,000, considerably higher than those previously received by the Committee. The Scientific Committee encourages the submission of papers or reports on the above work when it next considers this population.

SPERM WHALES
The Scientific Committee received the report of the intersessional sperm whale group set up at last year's meeting to review plans for a Comprehensive Assessment of sperm whales. The group recommended starting with a focus on North Pacific sperm whales. The following studies were proposed:

(1)

a review of mark-recapture data and joint US-Japanese genetic studies;

(2)

a preliminary abundance estimate for the western North Pacific, based on sightings;

(3)

a review of past abundance estimates and models;

(4)

a review of historical catch data;

(5)

a review of sperm whale regulation in the North Pacific;

(6)

life history, social behaviour, ecosystem considerations and current anthropogenic mortality.

A number of papers relevant to the studies recommended in the report of the intersessional group were presented. These included estimates of current abundance and distribution of large male sperm whales in Antarctic Areas IV and V using sightings data from JARPA surveys, 1989/90 to 1995/96; and an analysis of IDCR/SOWER sperm whale sightings between 1978/79 and 1995/96, the first, second and third (incomplete) circumpolar sets of surveys. The Scientific Committee agreed that although it was highly unlikely that g(0) for sperm whales was 1.0 given their diving behaviour, it was not appropriate to adopt a lower value until the assumptions behind its calculation had been thoroughly examined. It was also probably not advisable to apply a g(0) estimate from one geographical region to the species as a whole.

An analysis of sightings data obtained from Japanese sighting vessels in the North Pacific between 1982 and 1996 (1,412 sightings of 5,310 sperm whales), and a combined visual and acoustic survey for sperm whales conducted in the eastern temperate North Pacific between March and June 1997 was received. In discussion, acoustic estimation of school size was considered. Despite identified possible difficulties, the Scientific Committee recognised the potential value of acoustic techniques in estimating sperm whale abundance and recommended that researchers cooperate and integrate their results to the greatest extent possible; it encouraged the submission of further papers on the topic to future meetings.

The Scientific Committee agreed that a major topic of the Comprehensive Assessment should be a discussion of the best method of assessing sperm whale abundance.

A progress report on genetic data for North Pacific sperm whales revealed that the mtDNA control region and six microsatellites were being investigated in historical samples from the Japanese whaling industry and in contemporary samples, for example from biopsies and strandings. The Scientific Committee recommended that the use of sperm whale teeth for genetic analysis be examined further, and that the collection of material from mass strandings of sperm whales should be strongly encouraged.

A paper on Soviet catching of sperm whales in the Arabian Sea and biological information from the catch showed that two Soviet expeditions took a total of 954 sperm whales including 750 females over four seasons (1963-66), but only reported a catch of 424 whales including 75 females to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics (BIWS). Evidence was presented that this population was separated from the rest of the Indian Ocean. Although extensive marking of sperm whales had occurred in the area, there had been no recoveries in the data available to the author. Little biological material remained from these catches.

There was considerable discussion in the Scientific Committee on the issue of the reliability of whaling statistics. Two types of problem were identified: those that were evident from close inspection of the data (e.g. stretching of whale lengths, rounding errors in foetal lengths, unreliable stomach contents) and those that were not (e.g. under-reporting of catches, incorrect species identification). For two cases of under-reporting where the USSR had not reported catches of humpback and right whales, the Scientific Committee (Rep. int. Whal. Commn 39:34) had stated that:

'Users of the data base should he made aware of such problems, and it was suggested that others familiar with the data collection process for their national industry (or that of another region) should be encouraged to provide specific information.'

The database referred to is the IWC catch database held by the Secretariat.

Subsequently, evidence of a major falsification of Soviet catch records has emerged and a review of the true USSR Southern Hemisphere pelagic records was presented to the Scientific Committee in 1994. At that time the Committee

'Expressed its appreciation for the efforts of Zemsky and his colleagues in locating and securing these extremely important records that go back for many decades.' (Rep. int. Whal. Commn 45:62)

and

'encouraged the Russian scientists to provide the Commission with a report that provides the general background to the Soviet whaling operations and the revised catch statistics.' (Rep. int. Whal. Commn 45:63)

At this year's meeting a number of papers presenting new information on falsified sperm whale catch records were discussed. The Scientific Committee agreed that the official Soviet Southern Hemisphere catches should be removed from the IWC database.

After considerable discussion, two views on how to address this issue emerged. Despite this disagreement, the whole Scientific Committee agreed to request the Commission again, as they had in IWC Resolution 1994-6, to invite member governments to examine data on their past whaling operations for inaccuracies or falsification, and provide any revised data to the Commission.

The Scientific Committee agreed that work should continue on resolving questions regarding the catch history since catch data that were as accurate as possible would be needed for the eventual assessment.

Considering the many difficult tasks that must be completed before a Comprehensive Assessment of the North Pacific sperm whale stock will be possible, the Scientific Committee agreed to consider sperm whales next in 2000 (abundance estimation methods) and 2001 (stock structure).

In the Commission, New Zealand expressed its concern over the falsification of past data, and reserved its position to say more under the RMS (Agenda Item 12). Japan commented on the allegation of the manipulation of records. The provision of data is the responsibility of Governments, and no primary data had been presented to the Government of Japan, even though it was willing to look into any problems with the data.

11.2.2 Action arising
The Commission took note of all the comments from the Scientific Committee and endorsed its specific recommendations. The UK indicated that it would put forward a Resolution later in the meeting.

When it introduced the Resolution on Norwegian whaling, cosponsored by Brazil, Italy, Monaco, Netherlands and the USA, the UK explained that it did not challenge Norway's legal rights, but as last year expressed concern over its commercial whaling. Denmark was saddened because it had hoped this year for a step forward on small-type coastal whaling, and they felt that the Norwegian tradition was sustainable. The USA was opposed to commercial whaling and therefore supported the Resolution.

Norway responded that despite some changes, the substance of this Resolution was the same as in earlier years. Norway followed the RMP, using agreed abundance estimates as a basis for the quotas, as would the IWC. It believed that Commission policy is dictated by countries which will not accept commercial whaling. It could not accept the Resolution and stood by its sovereign rights which are in full compliance with its international obligations.

Japan proposed a series of amendments to delete the second and third preambular paragraphs and to revise the operative paragraph of the Resolution to reaffirm the legality of the whaling activities conducted by Norway. The UK could not accept these amendments since the effect was to state the obvious while the point was an expression of opinion, but they were seconded by St Lucia. The amendments were defeated by 9 votes in favour to 18 against, with 7 abstentions, and the Resolution shown in Appendix 2 was adopted with 15 votes in favour, to 9 against with 10 abstentions.

Sweden explained it regretted both that Norway side-steps the opinion of the Commission and that the Resolution had been put forward. Finland, Switzerland, South Africa and Mexico concurred in looking for compromise which it hoped Norway would also adopt.

11.3 Future work plans
11.3.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
The following activities were proposed by the Scientific Committee for consideration during the coming year.

RMP

(1)

Completion of CLA program revision and tuning.

(2)

Abundance estimation - general and specific matters relevant to the RMP.

(3)

North Pacific minke whale trials - review simulation results and new survey data.

(4)

North Pacific Bryde's whales - develop trials.

COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF WHALE STOCKS

(1)

Southern Hemisphere minke whales - review of JARPA (especially VPA question and abundance).

(2)

Southern Hemisphere blue whales - differentiation of sub-species; abundance estimation.

(3)

Western North Atlantic right whales - recent population trends (results of intersessional work and/or workshop).

(4)

Southern Hemisphere humpbacks - review intersessional work on preliminary assessment.

11.3.2 Action arising
The Commission noted and endorsed these plans. Monaco spoke of the benefits of the application of modern technologies, and referred to the lack of certainty of taxonomic status in certain species. It requested that DNA studies be used for the species and stocks subject to both direct and indirect takes. The Chairman of the Scientific Committee confirmed that this technology was included in the Committee's work.

The USA gave notice that it would propose a Resolution later in the meeting. It subsequently introduced a Resolution on the implementation trials for the western North Pacific Bryde's whales, jointly sponsored by Australia, Brazil, Italy, New Zealand and the UK. It explained that the work of the Scientific Committee should correspond with the foreseeable work of the Commission. This was unlikely to include Bryde's whales, since minke whales were the priority in the small-type coastal whaling, which did not take Bryde's whales. It therefore proposed that the Scientific Committee should suspend development of Implementation Simulation Trials until specifically instructed to resume this work by the Commission.

Japan considered this unreasonable and against the Convention itself. A Comprehensive Assessment of the stock had been completed and it was waiting for the development of simulation trials which had been identified as a priority by the Scientific Committee, with a proposal for an intersessional working group. Ireland, while not supporting the lifting of the moratorium or implementation of the RMP, opposed the Resolution because it did not help achieve its compromise. Sweden, South Africa and Spain concurred.

Denmark could not understand the reasoning of the Resolution, which included five general preambular facts and then drew a conclusion on the North Pacific Bryde's whale stock. The Comprehensive Assessment is not limited to species or areas, and the Commission has the right to suspend any work. The work might lead to an amendment of the Schedule, not a non-binding Resolution. Norway thought the real intention of the sponsors was to avoid commercial whaling.

The UK argued that the Commission, while taking account of the Scientific Committee's advice, should set the latter's priorities as the final authority. It would be a misuse of resources for application of the RMP to pelagic whaling. The Netherlands thought this was a logical consequence of earlier decisions that the Scientific Committee should wait for instructions from the Commission before carrying out implementation trials, a view shared by Germany. New Zealand, Italy, Monaco and Chile supported the comments of the USA, UK and other sponsors. Brazil wished to encourage the Scientific Committee to stimulate scientific research that would contribute to the conservation of whales stocks in a wide sense and not to concentrate on specific research activities that will contribute to the resumption of commercial whaling. France thought there were not enough reasons to have a programme on a new species involving a pelagic hunt.

St Lucia thought the work of the Scientific Committee should be respected, which was now to be burdened with additional studies on the environment. Dominica also opposed the Resolution because it saw this as another way of frustrating the scientific community.

On being put to the vote, the Resolution was defeated with 14 votes in favour, 17 against and 3 abstentions.

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