(from "Chairman's Report of the Fifty-First Annual Meeting")

12.1.1.2 ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION
An intersessional Working Group was established last year to review abundance estimation projects of interest to the IWC, and to document and enlarge the project to evaluate abundance estimators that incorporate g(0) and heterogeneities. This work is continuing and there will be a report to next year's meeting.

12.1.1.3 NORTH PACIFIC MINKE WHALE TRIALS
REVIEW RESULTS OF IMPLEMENTATION SIMULATION TRIALS
Last year, the Scientific Committee revised the Implementation Simulation Trials for North Pacific minke whales. Trials were completed for the management option in which the Small Areas were equal to the sub-areas, and the RMP is applied separately to each Small Area. The Scientific Committee expressed appreciation to Mrs Allison on completing what turned out to be a much larger task than expected.

Results from trials for two options regarding the level of Japanese incidental take were presented. The total catch for a sub-area was taken to be the catch limit set by the RMP or the level of incidental catch, whichever was the greater, as specified by the Commission.

The results of all Implementation Simulation Trials considered suggest that irrespective of how the RMP would be used to manage commercial whaling, the J stock, which is found predominantly in the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, is likely to decline markedly because of the incidental catches in that area. Although the primary focus of the trials is to examine performance relative to the O stock, the Scientific Committee expressed its concern at the implications of the result for the status of this stock.

The Scientific Committee noted that the data for some sub-areas used to condition the trials (a CPUE series and some minimum estimates of abundance) are sparse and of uncertain reliability.

The Scientific Committee noted that catch limits other than zero are set for some of the Small Areas in which animals from the J stock are occasionally found, and proposed that a new output statistic be defined to determine the impact of management using the RMP on the J stock. It also considered which of the trials specified last year could be omitted to obtain a final set, noting that the primary purpose of the trials was to examine the application of the RMP to the O stock.

SIGHTINGS SURVEYS
The Scientific Committee received a report on a sightings survey conducted last year in the Okhotsk Sea, and the research plan for a repeat sighting survey in the Okhotsk Sea in August-September 1999. The Scientific Committee reiterated its recommendation from last years' meeting that methods in addition to visual observations (e.g. VHF telemetry) be used to determine dive times, and urged that this work take place as a matter of priority.

The Scientific Committee was pleased to note that the Russian Federation had granted permission for the 1998 survey to operate in its EEZ. It recommended that the Commission requests the relevant authorities of the Russian Federation to grant permission in timely fashion for Japanese vessels to survey its EEZ in 1999.

Plans for a joint Republic of Korea-Japan sightings survey in sub-area 6 were introduced for a survey intended as a pilot study for a proposed two-year series of surveys in this area. The objectives of the programme are to collect information on the distribution of cetaceans and to provide abundance information for inclusion in Implementation Simulation Trials for North Pacific minke whales.

UNCERTAINTY OVER INCIDENTAL CATCHES
The Scientific Committee was unable to reach agreement on a best estimate of incidental catches in Japanese waters. It recalled that a working group had been established two years ago with the aim of specifying a time series of total incidental catches, but that this initiative had not yet resulted in agreement. The Scientific Committee encouraged further collaborative work with the aim of determining the best estimates of incidental take. Although it is necessary to agree a series of best estimates in order to implement the RMP, Implementation Simulation Trials only require the levels of incidental catch that span the plausible range.

Some members noted that no account had been taken of possible additional incidental catches, i.e. in the Japanese driftnet fishery, and by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, China (Taiwan), the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. The Scientific Committee encouraged the collection and analysis of data for these fisheries/nations.

SPECIFICATION OF FINAL TRIALS
The Scientific Committee discussed several issues related to new trials. It agreed the revised specifications for North Pacific minke whale Implementation Simulation Trials and recommended that the Secretariat conduct the trials during the intersessional period and report the results to next year's meeting.

Considering all of the information presented and discussed, and in the absence of agreement on a best estimate, the Scientific Committee agreed that an appropriate range of annual incidental take of minke whales by Japan for the purposes of Implementation Simulation Trials would be 25-75. Prior to making a recommendation on options for implementation of the RMP, the Scientific Committee will need to determine the best estimate of incidental take.

12.1.1.4 NORTH PACIFIC BRYDE'S WHALES TRIALS
INSHORE/OFFSHORE STOCK STRUCTURE
Last year, the Scientific Committee did not have sufficient time to finalise discussion on how to model the structure of inshore and offshore Bryde's whales around major island groups. New information was available this year about Bryde's whales in inshore waters off Kochi (Pacific side) and Kasasa (East China Sea side) which the Scientific Committee agreed represented a major contribution on the stock structure of Bryde's whales. It encouraged the authors to conduct their proposed photo-ID and genetics studies to understand this issue further.

Some members considered that the hypothesis that waters around major island groups in the western and central Pacific could contain inshore form animals had been based on analogy with the situation in Kochi. The Scientific Committee could not reach consensus on this issue and two positions emerged: (1) inshore form Bryde's whales are not found in and around major island groups in the western and central Pacific, and (2) this possibility cannot be excluded as implausible given the lack of information for many of the island groups concerned.

The Scientific Committee considered this issue in the context of the development of Implementation Simulation Trials. After some discussion it agreed to define an area around each island group in which inshore form animals could plausibly be located and to exclude that area when estimating abundance for conditioning the trials. The question of whether inshore form Bryde's whales are, in fact, found in and around island groups could be examined through surveys and biopsy work in the territorial waters of the countries involved in the island groups. Japan is prepared to extend support to countries to facilitate this work. The Scientific Committee welcomed this offer and encouraged such research.

WITHIN- (OFFSHORE) STOCK SPATIAL STRUCTURE
Last year, the Scientific Committee agreed to two alternative stock-structure hypotheses:

(1)

there is only one stock (stock 1) of (offshore form) Bryde's whales in sub-areas 1 and 2;

(2)

there are two stocks (stocks 1 and 2) of (offshore form) Bryde's whales in sub-areas 1 and 2, one stock of which is found in both sub-areas and the other in sub-area 2 only;

but had failed to agree on whether or not there was evidence for within-stock spatial structure.

After considerable discussion, the Scientific Committee agreed that the available data did not provide evidence of sub-stock structure in offshore form Bryde's whales in the western North Pacific and agreed to develop a set of Implementation Simulation Trials to assess whether some form of catch cascading is necessary to prevent possible local depletion. If this proved to be the case, further trials/discussion may be needed to select the number of Small Areas within sub-area 1.

It also agreed that the three alternative hypotheses for the dynamics of the area east of 180° (sub-area 2) would be as follows:

(1)

only stock 1 is found in sub-area 2;

(2)

there is a separate stock (stock 2), and that stock only, in sub-area 2; and

(3)

there is stochastic mixing of stocks 1 and 2 in sub-area 2 (a 50:50 split between the two stocks in the pristine state).

The Scientific Committee agreed to divide sub-area 1 into eastern and western sub-areas and to assume that when sub-area 1 is treated as a Small Area, all of the catches are taken from the (more depleted) western sub-stock. This is an extreme scenario. The Scientific Committee then discussed whether it was appropriate to divide sub-area 1 west further (into northern and southern sub-areas). It agreed that the probability that the coastal waters of northern Japan contained a local sub-stock was low because the abundance in this area had never been high, and that the evidence did not support the need to consider trials in which sub-area 1 west was further sub-divided to reflect possible separate localised aggregations.

The Scientific Committee discussed whether it was necessary to divide sub-area 1 by lines of longitude into more than two (east and west) and agreed not to sub-divide it further at this stage. The Scientific Committee also discussed whether the trials should allow for the possibility that the boundary between stocks 1 and 2 differs from 180°.

ABUNDANCE ESTIMATES
The Scientific Committee focused first on data sources and desirable characteristics of abundance estimates for the purpose of conditioning the Implementation Simulation Trials for western North Pacific Bryde's whales. It noted that rough abundance estimates would be sufficient for conditioning, as opposed to the actual abundance estimates to be used for calculating catch limits. Two potentially useful sets of sighting data were identified:

(1)

Japanese Scouting Vessel (JSV), May-September, 1972-1981.

(2)

dedicated, May-September, 1982-1998.

The JSV data have potential biases because the positions were allocated to noon positions and primary and secondary sightings were not distinguished.

The Scientific Committee judged that it should be possible to obtain the rough abundance estimates required as input to the trials for the June-July period from the dedicated survey data, and to form the sighting mixing matrixes using the JSV data for a broader range of months.

CATCHES
The Scientific Committee received a paper which compared official Soviet catch statistics with estimates of catches reported recently by Russian and US scientists. The Scientific Committee could not reach agreement on whether Bryde's whales may have been reported as sei whales. It recommended further investigation of this matter intersessionally, and looked forward to receiving a report at next year's meeting.

BIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS
The Scientific Committee considered values for the biological and operational parameters of the operating model. It briefly discussed which component of the population density dependence should apply in the RMP. Points raised included: whether or not this should be consistent between the RMP and the AWMP; the biology of the species concerned (noting that West Greenland minke whales are relevant to both Management Procedures); and any effect changing this in the RMP has in the context of the tuning of the RMP. The Scientific Committee agreed to consider this issue next year taking due note of previous extensive discussions in the Standing Working Group on the AWMP.

SPECIFICATION OF TRIALS
The Scientific Committee agreed the specifications for Implementation Simulation Trials and recommended that the Secretariat conduct the trials during the intersessional period and report the results to next year's meeting.

The Scientific Committee discussed how catches for the trials should be specified, particularly in the context of the extent to which known mis-reporting in other areas and on other species could be extrapolated, and the uncertainty regarding catches by China (Taiwan) and the Philippines. It was noted that the main purpose of Implementation Simulation Trials was to examine the relative performance of different management options and that this was likely to be insensitive to the level of historical catch. The Scientific Committee therefore agreed that these initial trials would be based on the base-case catch series in the 1996 assessment.

SIGHTINGS SURVEYS
A report on a sightings survey for Bryde's whales conducted in August and September 1998 in the area bounded by 10°-43°N and 145°-165°E and a description of Japan's research plans for a 1999 Bryde's whale abundance survey for future implementation of the RMP were provided. The Scientific Committee agreed that it would be useful to obtain estimates of the probability of detection on the transect line g(0).

12.1.2 Action arising
The UK expressed its concern that the J stock of minke whales might decline because of the incidental catches. Japan believed the hypotheses of three or four sub-stocks is unrealistic, and asked when a catch quota will be calculated, given that the assessment started in 1993. The Chairman of the Scientific Committee responded that ideally the details will be finalised next year, with recommendations the following year. The Republic of Korea commented that the simulation trials used CPUE data and a bycatch of 150, although the latter is actually less.

The Republic of Korea again drew attention, as it has done in the past two years, to the use of the name 'Sea of Japan'. It would like simultaneous use of the name with 'East Sea', noting that the UN has called for a resolution of the problem. Japan responded that the issue has nothing to do with, and is outside the competence of, the IWC.

Japan questioned the number and definition of the sub-areas being considered for Bryde's whales, and the Chairman of the Scientific Committee noted that these were two possibilities being explored in the trials. Japan expressed its gratitude for the work of the Scientific Committee and hoped that it would not take as much time as the North Pacific minke whales.

The Commission then endorsed the recommendations of the Scientific Committee.

12.2 Whale stocks
12.2.1 Report of the Scientific Committee
12.2.1.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BLUE WHALES
DIFFERENTIATION OF SUBSPECIES
An examination of the surfacing behaviour and blow-hole shape of blue whales used a total of 575 high-resolution video sequences including 353 from 101 putative pygmy blue whales and 162 from 25 putative 'true' blue whales obtained on four cruises. Putative pygmy blue whales tended to submerge without exposing the caudal keel (or sometimes even the dorsal fin). In 67 individuals the blowholes were scored as either 'neat' or 'skewed' in shape, and the 'skewed' type was rare in the small sample of putative true blue whales. During the 1997/98 and 1998/99 cruises, the topmen also categorised the overall body shape of 118 blue whales seen. The results indicated that the 'tadpole' shape category (larger head and shorter tail) was peculiar to pygmy blue whales, and the authors believed that this is a strong field character for subspecies recognition.

Of the video-taped animals, about 20% had been biopsied but few were putative blue whales. The Scientific Committee agreed that while the morphological and behavioural criteria discussed might allow a statistical differentiation between the two forms, they did not appear adequate to make a positive allocation of an individual to a subspecies in the field. On the question of possible genetic distinction between the two subspecies, the earlier apparent separation between the two had become less distinct now that a larger sample size had been examined. The Scientific Committee agreed that voucher material was urgently needed, especially from true blue whales. In the meantime, the Southwest Fisheries Center was now looking at microsatellites to see if they could possibly provide a better basis for separation between the two subspecies.

Acoustic recordings made on the 1998/99 SOWER cruise in the vicinity of Antarctic blue whales showed some features in common with recordings made on the 1996/97 and 1997/98 Antarctic cruises. All three sets of recordings were different from those made south of Madagascar in December 1996. Those made off the coast of Chile in 1997/98 proved to be more like the vocalisations of blue whales from the eastern North Pacific than blue whales from the Antarctic, and were different from those made south of Madagascar at the same time of year. The Scientific Committee agreed that acoustics had not yet provided a definitive answer on how to recognise the subspecies, and that what was needed was a positive link between the call types recorded and one or more of the other (e.g. morphological) features of the two subspecies.

ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION
The abundance estimates of blue whales from the three IWC/IDCR-SOWER sightings surveys from 1978/79 to 1996/97 were 500 (CV =0.54), 700 (0.45) and 1,300 (0.42) respectively. The analysis used sightings recorded as 'blue whales' as true blue whales. There was an extensive and inconclusive sub-committee discussion concerning whether and when pygmy blue whales might have been found south of 60°S, the effect this would have had on abundance estimates, and whether survey data were recorded in a way that would permit adjustment for them.

Although the relevant sub-committee had suggested that a new 'best' estimate could be proposed, the full Scientific Committee agreed that it was preferable for additional analyses to be completed first.

The Scientific Committee recommended that consideration of estimates of abundance of blue whales be accorded high priority at next year's meeting.

OTHER
Recently retrieved data on blue whale catches by the Slava, 1946-1957, showed that true catches of blue whales were frequently smaller than those reported; this was apparently so that blue whale catch limits would not be reduced, and to hide the undeclared catches of other species. Certain biological characteristics of the catch were also misreported - the proportion of undersized blue whales, for instance, was reported as 1.6-3.4% of the catch whereas it was actually 22.2-36.7%. There were also significant alterations to the catch positions, apparently to hide the locations of whaling grounds from competitors. Work on restoring the actual Soviet catch data would continue. The Scientific Committee expressed its sincere appreciation to Dr Mikhalev and his colleagues for their persistence in carrying out this very important task, and encouraged them to continue.

12.2.1.2 WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALES
ABUNDANCE, TRENDS AND VITAL RATES
Last year an Intersessional Steering Group had been set up to review ongoing work in relation to the status and trends of the North Atlantic right whale population, and to consider whether sufficient progress had been made to hold a special meeting on this topic. The meeting has not yet been held due to both insufficient progress and conflicts with other meetings. The situation will be reviewed again in June.

Discussion first centered around a recently published analysis of trends in the survival probability of North Atlantic right whales that estimated a decrease in annual survival rate from 0.99 in 1980 to 0.94 in 1994 and an expected time to extinction of less than 191 years.

The Scientific Committee concluded that whilst it had some questions on the approach used, these did not alter its conclusion of last year that there are 'serious concerns over the status of the stock'. These concerns are based on inter alia the small size (300-350 animals) of the stock; an increase in calving interval from an average of 3.67 years in the 1980s to over 5 years now; poor recent calf production (only 9 in the past 2 years); the possibility of an unusually high degree of female senescence (only 38% of females are reproductively active); and the level of anthropogenic mortality (see below). In these circumstances the Scientific Committee strongly recommended that:

(1)

the comprehensive assessment of this stock should remain of high priority;

(2)

research into the status of the stock and the possible causes for its reproductive impairment and decreased survival should be intensified in the USA and Canada;

(3)

information on human-inflicted mortality should be reported to the IWC on a regular basis, as had been done in the latest USA Progress Report; and

(4)

measures to mitigate the effects of ship strikes and entanglement on the population should be implemented as soon as possible.

In connection with (1) the Scientific Committee recommended that the proposed workshop should occur during the intersessional period, provided that the Intersessional Steering Group believes that sufficient progress has been made in the development of a spatial and age-structured model and the necessary participants are available.

The high anthropogenic mortality in this population motivated (3) and (4). Between 1970 and May 1999, 45 right whale mortalities have been recorded. In connection with (4), attention was drawn to last year's report, in which the Scientific Committee had endorsed many recommendations arising from the Cape Town workshop concerning mitigation of anthropogenic impacts on North Atlantic right whales.

Relative to these recommendations, the status of management actions is as follows:

(1)

Ship strike mortality: dissemination/publication of information in Notice to Mariners, charts and brochures (done or in production), development of early warning system surveys (done in NE and SE USA, with effectiveness being evaluated), development of areas to be avoided and acoustic deterrents (in discussion), development of sonar detection of whales (research projects in progress), proposal of Mandatory Ship Reporting System (accepted by the International Maritime Organisation and to be implemented in July 1999), consideration of ship speed reductions (in discussion but legally very complex) or shifting of shipping lanes (probable in the Bay of Fundy, in discussion or in need of data elsewhere);

(2)

Entanglement mortality: research gear modifications (much progress, and likely to be technically feasible though politically difficult to implement), monitor entanglement rates (study complete, further monitoring planned), continue/expand disentanglement programme (underway), consideration of gear closures (some seasonal closures mandated, others considered but unlikely soon); and

(3)

Facilitation of research: permit facilitation (done for biopsy of calves, still a major impediment to sample transfer through CITES), facilitation of necropsies for right whales (done), mitigation of potential harassment from whalewatching (in discussion), and establishment of protected areas (done in some areas, but associated regulations still in discussion).

It was noted that a moratorium on attachment of satellite tags to North Atlantic right whales was in effect, pending results of a study of long-term effects of tissue reaction to tag implantation. The Scientific Committee looks forward to receiving a report on this issue at its next meeting.

12.2.1.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HUMPBACK WHALES
REVIEW INTERSESSIONAL PROGRESS
It had not been possible to make any progress with the modelling of the pre-exploitation sizes of southern humpback whales, as envisaged in last year's report. The Scientific Committee recommended that such an exercise should be attempted intersessionally and at its next meeting, particularly now that revised estimates of humpback whale abundance from the IDCR/SOWER cruise programme are available.

ESTABLISHMENT OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE DIRECTORY AND ANTARCTIC CATALOGUE
An interim report on the IWC research contract to set up an Antarctic humpback whale catalogue noted that the contract has recently been finalised and photographic collections are still being received. The Scientific Committee agreed that past researchers on IDCR/SOWER cruises should be approached to submit pictures from their private collections, using the IWC's Southern Hemisphere directory.

The Scientific Committee welcomed this progress and looked forward to receiving an annual update on the development of the catalogue. The question of access to the Antarctic catalogue was raised and the Scientific Committee agreed to a case-by-case approach. It also recommended funding of the maintenance of the Antarctic catalogue.

COMPARATIVE DATA FROM NORTHERN STOCKS ON RATES OF INCREASE
A report on the work done by an intersessional group showed that opinions had differed on the approach to be taken, recognising that differences in estimated population growth rates could arise from a number of methodological and biological factors. The group recommended the following approaches to future exploration of the problem:

(1)

senior authors should be asked to provide comments on possible biases in their methodology (several had responded to date);

(2)

analyses should be conducted to assess the impact of changing age structure on recovery rates, and to consider whether this is likely to be a factor in any of the populations concerned;

(3)

analyses of maximum theoretical rates of increase should be further investigated to provide realistic bounds with which to judge results from field studies;

(4)

papers giving apparently conflicting rates from the same population should be examined in the context of how differences in methods may affect results;

(5)

published data on differing age and sex structures of a population at different stages of the life cycle should be examined, and simulations conducted to determine the impact of such differences on apparent rates of increase; and

(6)

a summary of published information relating to vital rates in each humpback whale population should be produced.

The East Australian population was one where (4) could be applied; shore-based censuses gave an increase rate for the period 1986-96 of 12.1% (95% CI 8.4-15.8%) whereas mark-recapture analyses gave an increase rate from 1988-1996 of 6.3% (95% CI 2-11%). After considerable discussion it was concluded that not only were the two rates of increase not significantly different, but it was highly likely they were measuring different components of the population (a core area and the migratory stream). Both studies indicated continued growth in the east Australian population.

Maximum possible increase rates had been calculated using a range of reasonable values for post-first-year annual survival rate, age at first parturition and annual pregnancy rate, and assuming an equal sex-ratio of calves and that first-year survival cannot exceed that of post-first-year survival. The results showed that population growth rates of 10% or more could be obtained if the average pregnancy rate was 0.5, survival rates were at least 0.96 and the age at first parturition eight years or less.

Independent estimates of age at maturation/first parturition or calving interval/pregnancy rate will assist greatly in deciding which population growth rates are more likely to occur than others.

The relative merits of various approaches for estimating the above parameters in the Southern Hemisphere were discussed. Without data on these parameters, further investigation of differences in rates of increase between southern and northern stocks is unlikely to be productive. The Scientific Committee noted that different rates of increase should not be unexpected from populations with different catch histories and potentially different environmental conditions. It recommended completion of a tabular summary of published vital rates for different humpback populations, including data from the most recent periods of whaling. It also recommended incorporation of vital rates, where believed reliable, into a framework for maximum possible increase rates.

Estimates of abundance of humpback whales from the IWC/IDCR-SOWER surveys using the same approach as for blue whales were considered. Because of large sample sizes, mean school sizes and effective search half-widths were estimated separately for each circumpolar set of surveys. The consequent estimates of abundance for the first, second and third sets of cruises, corresponding to different extents of partial coverage of the area south of 60°S (as detailed above for blue whales), were 7,400 (CV 0.38), 10,000 (CV 0.27) and 9,300 (CV 0.23). Extrapolating to the complete area south of 60°S by the same coarse method as used for blue whales yields values for this total area of 11,400, 12,400 and 14,200 respectively, reflecting a non-significant annual increase rate of about 2%.

Some concern was expressed over the method of extrapolation used to make the third circumpolar set comparable with the first two. The missing sectors included the whole of Area IV, which in the second circumpolar set had contained the biggest population of all the areas and was known to be increasing. Hence a simple extrapolation from the ratio of unsurveyed to surveyed areas might have underestimated the contribution of Area IV to the total. In addition, it was preferable to standardise on common northern boundaries, as proposed for the equivalent blue whale estimates. However, unlike the situation for Antarctic blue whales, there was likely to be a substantial proportion of the humpback whale population north of 60°S in mid-summer, suggesting the need for extrapolation further north, perhaps using JSV data.

The Scientific Committee considered that the present situation, in which the Commission had no agreed estimate, was inappropriate given the amount of information that was available. The Scientific Committee agreed that the unextrapolated estimate of 10,000 (CV 0.27; 95%CI, 5,900-16,800) from the second circumpolar series represents the best estimate of humpback whale abundance south of 60°S in summer for 1988, the median year of the set of surveys. Southern Hemisphere humpback abundance will be considered again next year as part of the scheduled preliminary assessment.

With respect to increase rate, the Scientific Committee agreed that the surveys on the west and east coasts of Australia had shown that those populations are increasing as follows: East Australia, 1981-96, 12.3% (10.1-14.4%), 1984-92, 11.7% (9.6-13.8%); West Australia, 1977-91, 10.9% (±3.0%).

Not directly related to this agenda item, the Scientific Committee noted newly discovered recoveries of Soviet (VNIRO) marks from the Sovietskaya Ukraina between 1959 and 1972.

The Scientific Committee recommended, in order to facilitate the Comprehensive Assessment of southern humpback whales, that surveys aimed at establishing population size and stock identity for Southern Hemisphere humpback whales should be encouraged wherever possible, especially in areas where there is currently little published information.

12.2.1.4 OTHER STOCKS
NORTH ATLANTIC HUMPBACK WHALES
The question of timing of an in-depth assessment of North Atlantic humpback whales was discussed. Last year the Scientific Committee had recommended that this occur in the year 2000. However uncertainties surrounding the population identity and status of humpback whales in the eastern Caribbean remain, and two pertinent studies were proposed: a review of whaling logbooks to identify historical whaling grounds in the region (this is underway); and a multinational sighting and acoustic survey in the southeastern Caribbean. There are plans for such a survey to take place from January to April 2000. The location of the year 2000 meeting makes it more difficult for scientists from North Atlantic countries to attend. The Scientific Committee therefore agreed that the assessment be postponed to the 2001 meeting.

Last year, the Scientific Committee had recommended that the possibility of collaborative research on humpback whales in the southeastern Caribbean be explored with national authorities in the area and that the use of combined acoustic and visual methods be investigated to facilitate the collection of abundance and individual identification data. In response, some US scientists developed a research proposal modelled on the IWC's successful IDCR/SOWER surveys. The USA has offered to provide a research vessel that would support up to 15 visiting scientists from participating nations for a survey lasting up to 60 days each year. The proposal was presented to the Inter-Governmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC) IOCARIBE, an inter-governmental organisation responsible for coordinating scientific research on marine issues in the Caribbean. IOCARIBE endorsed the proposed research program at its 6^th Inter-Governmental Session held 25-29 April 1999 in Costa Rica. Recognising the IWC's competence and expertise, IOCARIBE has written to the Committee asking it to review and provide comment on the proposed research.

The primary objectives of the proposed programme are to (1) obtain information on the current distribution of humpback whales in the southeastern Caribbean, and (2) establish their relationship to the humpback whales in the rest of the North Atlantic. The Scientific Committee recognises the value of the proposed programme and requested that the Commission encourages the relevant nations to consider participation in the research. Results from such a programme will be of great value to the assessment in 2001. The USA has offered to host, on behalf of IOCARIBE, a research planning meeting for participating nations during the 1999 summer to develop the cruise plan and survey design. It is hoped that the first survey would be planned for the months of January to April 2000, with results available to the IWC Scientific Committee at its meeting in 2001. The results of this first survey would be used to plan subsequent surveys with the results reported each following year.

The Scientific Committee recognised the potential importance of the proposed survey for establishing the current status of humpback whales in the eastern Caribbean. It recommended that a detailed research plan and protocol be worked out before and during the proposed 1999 planning meeting and offered its support in this process. In order to facilitate matters, an Intersessional Working Group was established and the Scientific Committee thanked IOCARIBE for drawing this matter to its attention.

NORTH PACIFIC RIGHT WHALES
A progress report on eastern North Pacific right whale research was also discussed. The current catalogue at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center for the eastern North Pacific contained photographs from at least 14 right whale sightings, where a minimum of 17 whales were seen. So far there had been no matches, but only 7 to 10 individuals are readily identifiable by their callosity patterns. The Scientific Committee believed that the situation of eastern North Pacific right whales was as bad if not worse than in the western North Atlantic. Numbers were of the order of tens of individuals, with only one sighting of a possible juvenile in the 20^th century. It strongly recommended that research into the status of eastern North Pacific right whales be continued and intensified, specifically that:

(1)

surveys to establish the summer distribution and feeding grounds be continued;

(2)

photo-identification and photogrammetry effort be combined with attempts to obtain photographs suitable for examination of evidence of entanglement and ship strikes; and

(3)

genetic sampling of individuals be continued and the use of genotypic mark/recapture methods for population estimation be investigated.

EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALES
The Scientific Committee also drew attention to the situation of right whales in the eastern North Atlantic, where the occasional sighting was still being recorded, suggesting that there might still be a remnant population. Survey efforts by European members of the Scientific Committee was encouraged.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MINKE WHALES
VPA analyses, based on commercial and JARPA catch-at-age data and abundance estimates from sighting surveys, had indicated an increasing trend in recruitment of minke whales in Area IV prior to exploitation. The Scientific Committee agreed that the papers received dealing with the various aspects of selectivity and segregation show that parameters potentially important for management (natural mortality, trends in recruitment) can be estimated from age data obtained from the catch. However, some work remains to be done. A fully agreed approach for computing abundance estimates used in the VPA analyses from the JARPA data is not yet available.

The Scientific Committee considered work undertaken to understand and correct the apparent negative bias in abundance estimates obtained from JARPA survey data due to the non-random location of effort. It strongly encouraged further work on the GAM-based estimator, including the development of a standard method to determine the degrees of freedom and investigation of whether bias in trend estimates can result from changes over time in the type of clustering. It was agreed that the approach offered a way to correct bias in IDCR/SOWER estimates from closing mode data as well as JARPA estimates; the sighting and sampling survey mode is an extreme form of closing mode. The ability to incorporate environmental and other covariates also broadens the applicability of the approach.

A microsatellite analysis to investigate stock structure in the Antarctic minke whale was presented. JARPA samples from Area IIIE, IV, V and VIW were examined. Allele frequencies of five microsatellite loci were similar among areas.

BAFFIN BAY, DAVIS STRAIT AND HUDSON BAY STOCKS OF BOWHEAD WHALES
Historically, bowhead whales were abundant in the Baffin Bay-Davis Strait area, but the current population is believed to be in the low hundreds.

No new information was available on the Hudson Bay stock. The Scientific Committee noted that both of these stocks are endangered and have small populations. There is no new information from last year except that a bowhead whale was taken at Pangmirtung, eastern Baffin Island, in the summer of 1998. Accordingly, the Scientific Committee reiterated last year's advice i.e.

Given the apparent interest in continuing harvests from these two stocks (Baffin Bay-Davis Strait and Hudson Bay) that were depleted by commercial whaling, additional knowledge of their status is crucially needed.

The Scientific Committee also noted an urgent need to resolve the question of stock identity of these two stocks using genetic samples and any other data.

OKHOTSK SEA BOWHEAD WHALES
Information on Okhotsk Sea bowheads was available in a recent English translation of a Russian paper, which supports the opinion that bowheads are isolated in the Okhotsk Sea. Soviet scientists first rediscovered bowheads there in 1967. A bowhead whale was retrieved dead in September 1995 in a Japanese-type crab trap from a depth of 230-250m in the north central Okhotsk Sea.

The Scientific Committee recommended that the joint Russian-American research be continued on Okhotsk Sea bowheads. It also recommended that in addition to bowhead whale sightings being recorded, time is allocated for the collection of biopsy samples.

No information was available on other bowhead stocks, but Norwegian researchers have repeated observations of small numbers of bowheads, including calves, around Franz Josef Land and western Spitsbergen. These observations show that bowheads are still extant in these regions.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC STOCK OF GRAY WHALES
A number of papers on western (or Asian) gray whales were discussed. The history of exploitation was reviewed. The last commercial catches were made off Korea in 1966. In 1995, a joint American-Russian project was started on western gray whales in their summer feeding grounds off Sakhalin Island. In May 1996 one gray whale was killed off the western coast of Hokkaido, Japan. Results from a recent review to consider the status of western gray whales, human-related threats to the population, and research and monitoring were also reported. The Scientific Committee endorsed and encouraged this joint research. It recalled it had already identified this population as one of the most endangered baleen whale populations in the world. It again recommended that a long-term research, monitoring and management programme be continued and expanded for these whales and their habitat. The Scientific Committee strongly requested that the Commission urges the relevant authorities to develop and implement a comprehensive, long-term conservation and monitoring programme.

12.2.2 Action arising
12.2.2.1 NORTH ATLANTIC HUMPBACK WHALES
The Commission endorsed the report and recommendations from the Scientific Committee, but there was wider discussion of the following matters. Antigua and Barbuda pointed out to the Commission that research in EEZs needs much regulation and discussion beforehand. Coastal states have overall rights, and it reserved its rights concerning the proposed Caribbean humpback research until more information is made available. It urged deeper consultation. Dominica shared these concerns.

The USA responded that it had made a good faith effort through IOCARIBE in this regard and had offered to host the planning meeting.

Japan hoped that research will be carried out for proper management and thought that the Caribbean nations should carry out their own research plans which it would support.

St Lucia drew attention to the implications of conducting research in territorial seas. This proposal had been taken to IOCARIBE even when reservations had been expressed, and it suggested such nations should sign the Law of the Sea Convention. St Vincent and The Grenadines supported the comments of its Eastern Caribbean colleagues, as did Grenada, which reserved the right to determine research proposals in its EEZ and territorial sea.

Antigua and Barbuda noted that assistance had been offered and it suggested that IOCARIBE should be asked to delay until the Japanese offer was clear. St Vincent and The Grenadines pointed out that DNA samples had been taken.

The USA countered the impression that it had done something wrong. It was concerned to ensure that whoever did the work had obtained the appropriate permits and offered a vessel to further the goals, but this had not been accepted in the spirit offered.

The Netherlands emphasised the importance of encouraging nations to get on with the work, and the discussion on this matter concluded with acceptance of this part of the Scientific Committee's report, subject to the comments and reservations expressed. Japan later intimated that it would assist with abundance estimates by non-lethal methods.

12.2.2.2 BAIRD'S BEAKED WHALE
The UK asked about abundance estimates of Baird's beaked whale, since Japan has increased its quota and the stock was last assessed in 1990. The Chairman of the Scientific Committee indicated that there were no plans to look at this stock. It is a small cetacean and it would be considered if information was provided.

Japan stated its belief that Baird's beaked whale is outside IWC competence, and since it is within its coastal waters, the Government of Japan is responsible for management. The UK responded that it is included in the Interpretation section of the Schedule, but Japan retorted that the name does not appear in the Annex of Nomenclature to the Convention. It is carrying out sightings surveys and IWC intervention is inappropriate.

12.2.2.3 NORWEGIAN WHALING
The UK then referred to the Resolution adopted last year on Norwegian whaling. This called on Norway to reconsider its objection and halt catching. The UK regretted that this had not been heeded, rather the quota had been increased, which was contrary to the spirit if not the letter of the resolution.

Norway spoke of its legal and sovereign rights. It sets the quota using the RMP, which would be the same if the IWC set the limit.

Australia, Austria, Brazil, Chile, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Monaco, New Zealand, Oman, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the USA all associated themselves with the UK statement.

Japan considered the statement made by the UK inappropriate and asked for it to be withdrawn. Norwegian whaling is legitimate and in conformity with the Scientific Committee procedures. The Convention is a contract or rule-book and any country breaking the rules should leave. Both Norway and Japan are conforming to the rule-book.

Denmark opposed the statement by the UK on the resolution, and was joined by Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Japan, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and The Grenadines, Solomon Islands and the Russian Federation. Argentina also did not associate with the UK, although it had voted for the resolution last year.

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