(from "Report of the Scientific Committee", 1998 meeting)

14.2 Review of results from existing permits
14.2.1 Japan - Southern Hemisphere
Last year, the Committee had undertaken a detailed review of the JARPA programme and had identified a number of areas for future work. Progress on that work is given in Annex E, Appendix 8 and is reviewed in Item 9.7.

A number of documents relating to the JARPA programme were presented to the meeting (SC/50/CAWS 4, 7, 8, 9, 32, 33, SC/50/E2 and SC/50/O3). They are discussed in Annex E and Annex H.

Hatanaka introduced SC/50/O12. He believed that the Commission's Resolution last year (IWC Resolution 1997-5: IWC, 1998a, p.47) and related comments by the Commission had misrepresented the Committee's advice with respect to JARPA's contribution to management by quoting only the first part 'JARPA results were not required for management' of the relevant sentence without the subsequent clauses referring to its potential to improve management in a number of ways. In SC/50/O12 he elaborated on how he believed JARPA results contributed to the management objectives agreed by the Commission (IWC, 1990, p.18) particularly with respect to estimating MSYR. He believed that in order to avoid misunderstandings, it was important for the Committee to bring to the Commission's attention the fact that JARPA provides information that is critically important for management.

Goto concurred with Hatanaka's viewpoint and added that he believed that the combination of genetic, morphological, age and sex segregation information coming out of JARPA with respect to stock structure in Areas IV and V was essential for Implementation Simulation Trials in the RMP.

In discussion, it was noted that the Commission's Resolution did include information on the potential for JARPA to improve management. However, for clarity, the Committee agrees to repeat its full statement from last year on this matter:

'while JARPA results were not required for management under the RMP, they had the potential to improve it in the following ways: (1) reductions in the current set of plausible scenarios considered in Implementation Simulation Trials; and (2) identification of new scenarios to which future Implementation Simulation Trials will have to be developed (e.g. the temporal component of stock structure). The results of analyses of JARPA data could be used in this way perhaps to increase the allowed catch of minke whales in the Southern Hemisphere, without increasing the depletion risk above the level indicated by the existing Implementation Simulation Trials of the RMP for these minke whales.'

Smith commented that the RMP only requires data the Committee believe can be reliably measured, i.e. abundance and catch data, although he now noted that in some circumstances there is uncertainty about the latter. He believed that not only is additional information on MSYR not required, but that incorporation of such information would entail far more extensive modifications to the RMP specifications than he thought the Committee had envisaged.

14.2.2 Japan - North Pacific
A number of documents incorporating information from JARPN were presented (SC/50/RMP7, 8, 12 and SC/50/O3). These are discussed in Annex D.

14.3 Review of new or revised proposals
14.3.1 JARPA - Southern Hemisphere
SC/50/O1 presented the 1998/99 JARPA research plan. This is a continuation of the programme that has been extensively discussed previously by the Committee. It is the 10th full-scale survey of a 16-year research programme. The survey will cover Area V and the western half of Area VI to focus on the issue of stocks within the framework of the four major objectives of the programme. The need for elucidation of stock structure and clarification of stock definition has been discussed previously by the Committee (and see Item 7.5). Details of the programme's findings in this regard have been presented in papers to the Committee, e.g. SC/50/CAWS4. In order to clarify matters suggested by that analysis, it is proposed to again survey the western part of Area VI. In response to comments from some Committee members, it is planned to carry out a feasibility study on a revised sampling protocol in part of the area.

The survey period is the same as in previous years and the sample size is 400 ± 10%. One research vessel, three sampling/sighting vessels and one dedicated sighting vessel will be used. Participation by international scientists is welcomed.

Smith expressed appreciation of the work outlined in Annex E, Appendix 8, and particularly the initiative with respect to stock definition (see Item 7.5) and to the response to Taylor's proposal (SC/49/SH28) given in SC/50/CAWS7. He also encouraged the proposers to pursue the meso-scale survey possibilities.

However, Smith expressed concern about the problem of decreasing selectivities with age, noting that SC/50/CAWS32 suggests that this possibility requires further attention. In this regard the Committee was pleased to note that Polacheck, Butterworth and Punt intended to work towards presenting a joint paper on VPA analyses to the next meeting.

Smith also noted the importance of examining the age distribution data in terms of distance from the ice-edge at a relatively fine spatial scale and taking into account inter-annual variability. In addition, distribution patterns of minke whales within the pack-ice could provide information on this problem. He identified additional data (e.g. other surveys for seals and birds, satellite information on pack-ice) that could be useful.

He believed that the above investigations of the representativeness of the JARPA samples were important and of direct relevance to the likelihood of JARPA meeting its objectives. Slooten concurred with this view.

In response, Fujise expressed his appreciation for the comments and suggestions made by Smith. He reported that pack ice information had been already taken into account during the JARPA survey. He noted that the southern stratum of the JARPA survey is based on the ice edge. It is defined as the area within 45 n.miles north of the ice edge (excluding the Prydz Bay and Ross Sea regions). However, since pack ice is not firm and is always moving, he noted that it is difficult to measure the distance from the ice edge, particularly as it is only relatively recently that more precise satellite information on the pack ice has become available.

Fujise reiterated that the pack ice data were used in the analyses presented to last year's JARPA Review Meeting. Studies of the body fat condition of minke whales have also been examined in relationship to geographical variations of the pack ice. He concluded that this work would continue and would take into account Smith's comments.

Polacheck noted that SC/50/CAWS32 had no direct relevance to the question of non-random samples in the JARPA catches as the analyses in that paper were concerned with selectivity patterns in the commercial catches. However, if the presence of minke whales in the pack-ice has a large effect on the selectivity pattern in the commercial catch, it would also be expected to be the case for the JARPA catch. SC/50/CAWS37 reported a low proportion of sexually mature females in the JARPA samples from Area IV in 1997/98 compared to previous JARPA samples and attributed this to a large number of animals inside the ice-edge where the research vessel could not enter. This implies that large differences in the ages of the samples are likely depending on the extent of the ice-edge. Similar annual variations in sex ratio due to the effects of the ice-edge were commonly noted during the period of the commercial catch (e.g. Shimadzu and Kasamatsu, 1983).

Polacheck also noted that genetic analyses of the stored commercial biological samples would be extremely valuable for determining the stocks from which the commercial catch had come in the context of the VPA analyses (IWC, 1998b, p.103). Shimadzu stated that Japanese scientists were planning such analyses.

The Committee noted that the addition of quantitative echo-sounder equipment to the dedicated sighting vessels this year will provide the added capability of determining the distribution and abundance of food species including Antarctic krill. The effect of using such equipment on sighting surveys was briefly considered in Annex H.

Some members noted that information provided by JARPA could be of significant value for the elucidation of the effects of environmental change on whales and the Antarctic ecosystem.

In closing, Shimadzu expressed appreciation for the constructive comments provided by the Committee.

14.3.2 Japan - North Pacific
SC/50/O2 described the continuation of a programme begun in 1995 after a feasibility study in 1994, to examine (1) whether sub-stocks exist of the Okhotsk Sea - Western Pacific stock (O stock) of minke whale, (2) whether an additional stock (W stock) exists in the central part of the North Pacific, and if it does, the rate of mixing with O stock. One hundred animals will be sampled in two or three areas among sub-Areas 7, 8, 9, 11 and 12.

With regard to the sampling area in the 1998 survey, it was reported that as it seems difficult to get permission from the Government of Russia to operate in their waters, sub-Areas 7 and 8 (in May and June) and 11 (in July) were to be covered among three options in SC/49/NP1.

The Committee noted that it had not reviewed this proposal in detail since 1994. Some members further noted that subsequent proposals have not been updated since the initial proposal, particularly with respect to sample sizes, in the light of results obtained thus far. In this context, they referred to the development of a high-powered biopsy gun (SC/50/O15), noting that the potential of using this non-lethal method to meet some of the goals of the programme should be evaluated. Other members referred to previous unresolved discussions on the issue of lethal versus non-lethal research methodology. It was noted that a more detailed proposal was needed for the Committee to carry out a thorough review.

Hatanaka commented that at the meeting to specify North Pacific Minke Whale Trials held in 1996, Smith had noted that the information from JARPN had been helpful (IWC, 1997b, p.96). Hatanaka pointed out that the results from comprehensive analyses using JARPN data should be used for reconsidering the specifications of North Pacific trials.

Shimadzu responded that the research proposal would have been presented more fully had more time been available between the return of the cruise and the start of the subsequent IWC meeting. He reiterated that sample size questions and the issue of non-lethal alternatives had been effectively addressed in the initial research plan. However, he further noted that the estimated sample size requirement could be refined with additional data.

Komatsu stated that the programme could be terminated after the completion of the 1999 cruise if the Committee agreed that the research objectives had been adequately met by that time. The programme had been designed to examine whether or not (1) sub-stocks exist in the 'O' stock and (2) 'W' stock exists in the central part of the North Pacific. If the latter is true, it is necessary to estimate the rate of mixing with O stock. The first assumption was rejected in 1996. If the Committee reached an agreement on the W stock issue (i.e. rejection of the W stock hypothesis) by 2000, this would mean that the research objective had been met in a timely fashion. He also referred to the need to complete work on the research objective to elucidate the mixing of J and O stocks using the data obtained up to and including the 1999 cruise.

After some discussion, the Committee agrees that a comprehensive review of JARPN should be planned for 2000. If the programme is extended to the year 2000 or thereafter, a detailed and thorough research proposal should be submitted for review.

Komatsu further stated that the Government of Japan would elaborate the programme for 1999, taking into account the constructive comments made during the meeting and analyses of the 1998 data; it would circulate this to Committee members prior to departure of the cruise.

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